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Encounter with Population Crisis Lecture Series Two |
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-- - - - - - - - - --
I~..£ te.. "'itl.
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TWO
POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
(FormerlyFamily Planning Foundation)
(July 11, 1991)
II
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1~II£tt...lfel- "'if II
18ttl...la.fittll t~I-isis
TWO
DrMS Swaminathan
on
POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT:
HOW TO MEET THE TWIN-CHALLENGE
IN INDIA?
POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
(FormerlyFamily Planning Foundation)
(July 11, 1991)
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ONE WORD NEVERTHELESS!
It is quite logical that the honour of delivering the second
lecture of the Encounter with Population Crisis lecture series"
of the Family Planning Foundation wentto Dr MS Swaminathan,
one of India's most brilliant sons and a world renowned
authority on agriculture and plant genetics. For, he is a natural
heir to Dr Normal Ernest Borlaug, Nobel Peace Laureate and
father of the Green Revolution worldwide, including India.
Between the two of them, they did something permanently
unique to India, for which the nation shall remain eternally
beholden to them. Not only that, Dr Swaminathan is the first
recipient of the World Food Prize, reckoned to be equivalent to
Nobel Prize, ifthere were one for food. And this does us and the
country mighty proud.
But Dr Swaminathan is not merely a scientist, lost in
research howsoever productive or original. His is a rarely
luminous mind further enriched by his multifarious activities,
concerning life at the grassroots. Further, his contribution as an
environmentalist has made him a world authority on man's
"Common Future"., to be turned into our "Common Present" .
He is impatient to make the planet earth as well as Mother
Nature bountiful and beautiful, here and now.
It is,therefore, but proper that the text ofDrSwaminathan's
address is published in a small, useful brochure to make it a
permanent point of reference.
I congratulate the Family Planning Foundation and its
Executive Director for this initiative.
Bombay
March 19, 1992
J R D Tata
Chairman
* A book authored by a distinguished team of scientists and
environmentalists headed by Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, Prime
Minister of Norway.
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r
ihe script is based on the address deliveredby Dr M S
Swaminathano, neof India'smosteminentsonsanda scientistof
world repute,beforea selectgatheringat the HotelTaj Palace,
NewDelhi, ontheWorldPopulationDay, 1.1th July 1991,under
the auspicesofthe FamilyPlanningFoundation.The scriptalso
includesthe gist of ideasthrownup in the question-and-answer
sessionwhichfollowedthe lecture.
HARISH KHANNA
ExecuJDiviree£tIor
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'Population, in refation to environment, ca«s for a fw{istk view of
lrufia's myriad:pro6Cemsat onego. In fad, togetlier tliey
canstitute tlie country's num6er one pro6Cem'.
~
- ff r J R D Tata's absence from today's function
Gd/I/l makes me feel as if I am personally missing
something precious. He is not merely an individual
or industrialist of note; he is a lighthouse of inspiration for all
those who happen to share his concern in the fieldof population
and related areas. But what really assures me is the fact that he
must be doing something more important in London.
Holistic Approach Needed
It is rather ironical, that while we are celebrating the World
Population Day today, and many newspapers have reeled off
some alarming statistics on the global situation, India's own
problems are assuming grave proportions, calling for a no-
nonsense approach. The reason why I say so is that, only on
June this year, we had celebrated the World Environment Day
and not much before that, there was the World Mother's Day.
It is just customary that we wax eloquent on such occasions.
Thus, we reduce all this to an an~ual ritual, taking a fragmented
view of the human scenario, where all such problems are
interconnected and each one of it loses or gains in importance
in relation to that integrated human being who seeks to live in
a harmonious society, in a harmonious way.
While all these issues are undoubtedly important in
themselves, as we feel good in talking about them, such a
fragmented approach does affect us psychologically and we
seem to lose our sense of priorities.
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Happily, that isnot the way today's subject has been chosen.
Population, in relation to environment, calls for a holistic view
of India's myriad problems at one go. In fact, together they
constitute the country's number one problem. They form an
. umbrella, which subsumes problems of national security,
livelihood security, human survival, life-support systems and all
else that matters.
At the very outset, let me quote a passage from Dr Asok
Mitra's recent article published in the FranCine. While Dr Mitra
does not need any introduction to today's distinguished
audience, he has overthe years spared no effort in spearh~ading
a profound census movement in the country. Says he, "The first
results of the census suggest, that none of the basic requirements
of a steady fertility decline in India's population is yet in sight.
These requirements are: Universal male and female literacy up
to the primary level; banning of child labour, thereby raising the
cost of rearing of children; removal of malnutrition and bad
hygiene; provision of safe drinking water; drastic reduction in
infant and child mortality; and improvement in productivity and
skills. This is the minimum domestic agenda and yet it remains
neglected even on'the eve of the 21st century." Could the
UNFPA, the conscience-keeper of the world, insofar as
population is concerned, have done better, working out such
an agenda?
Before we answer this question, let us compare with it
UNFPA's own 7-point charter for achieving population
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%is is tIU minimum tfomestic aoenda and
yet it remains negfectetf even on tlU.
eve of tIU 21st century.
~~
stabilisation. That charter includes: 1) Better health services for
mothers and children; 2) lowering maternal and infant
mortality; 3) wider access for women to literacy, education and
employment; 4) delayed marriages; 5) more equitable
distribution of income and wealth, making for higher living
standards; 6) greater economic opportunities for women; and
7) availability of family planning information and services.
The main reason of comparing these two plans isto highlight
the point that even for solving the population prqblem, one
must face it in its total complexity. It has ceased to be a mere
one-point intervention.
Evidently, population awareness ought to increase much
more. The UNFPA has come out with population clocks and
small and handy computers which willtell you as to how many
children have been added to the population during the duration
of my talk to you or while one is waiting at the railway station.
These clocks are to be mounted on all the major building and
public offices. But this awareness has to be taken much further.
Contrasting Trends Discernible
The Census 1991 is, however, not altogether without hope.
Notwithstanding the fact that our population growth rate has
not achieved the level set for it in the National Health Policy
statement of 1983, there is some discernible progress in the
field of literacy. On the whole, there are trends upon which we
can hope to build in future.
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Yet, we are somewhat shy even to take note of our
achievement. In fact, our country is so diverse and vast that if
you write something favourable about India and then say quite
the opposite of it, more often than not, both the statements
would be found true! For example, when you compare literacy
in Kerala with that in Bihar, you are in fact comparing two
extremely contrasting situations. The same would be found true
about the comparison of agriculture in Arunachal Pradesh and
Punjab. While in Arunachal Pradesh one comes across the
shifting agriculture practised thouSands of years ago, Punjab will
seem to distinguish in most modem agricultural practices. This
underlines the fact that almost in every field of developmental
endeavour, the amplitude of variability found within India is
very, very great. The upshot of it, therefore, is that within our
own country, we have a good laboratory of ideas and situations
to be able to determine as to why certain things succeed in
certain areas, while they do not do so in certain other areas.
Nevertheless, there are areas which rather disturb the mind.
The all ilVportant social parameter of sex ratio has lost some
ground during the decade 1981-91, there were 933 women pel
thousand men. This figure now stands at 929 -a decline of 4
women per thousand of men! In absolute terms, this decline
may appear to be marginal but the trend is far from acceptable.
Vina Mazumdar, analysing these figures in the course of an
article, has said that she is not surp~ed at these figures in view
of what has been happening to women. However, seven
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'In far.t, our country is so tliverse ana vast tliat if you write
SO1tUt/iingfavoura6u a60ut Inaia ana tlien say quite
tlie opposite of it, more often tlian not, 60t/i
tlie statements wouU 6e founa true!'
~~
women's organisations have in a statement reacted more
strongly to what these figures convey. Let me quote from this
statement. Itsays, "The decline in women's conditions and the
rising trend of violence against them, are part of the same social
process which cannot be combated by a few token programmes
for women. We have identified other aspects of the process of
social change which indicate advancing subordination of women
with declining access or control over basic resources and power
to lead their lives with dignity and basic human right." Further,
it says, "We can only reiterate and persist simply to demand
empowerment of women at all levels to participate effectively in
the political process to be able to decide the future of this
country. Protection and improvement of women's rights
cannot be subservient to other policies like population control
and so on".
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A Bird's-Eye View
Prefacing thus, now I proceed to address myself to the main
subject to my talks today. One can break down environment
into components like land, water, flora and fauna and the
atmosphere as a whole consisting of the biosphere, the geosphere
and the hydrosphere. We shall have to disaggregate
environment into its different component so as to be able to
study it carefully. But the ones which are more relevant to us
are the land and water resources, biological diversity of the
flora and fauna, the atmosphere and, over and above, the
relationship that obtain between population and environment.
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Since 1947, we have added over 500 million people to our
population. On the positive side, we might legitimately say
that we have even then staved off all famines since that great
Bengal famine of 1942-43 struck us before Independence.
Many like Prof AmartyaSen opine that famine was not entirely
caused by any shortage of food or failure of crops but was mainly
caused by unequal distribution. However, the fact remains that
that was the last major famine faced by the country. All
subsequent calamities of this nature have been successfully
averted. For example, the great Bihar drought in 1966-67
could be combated among others by very large PL 480
imports. However, that is a dubious distinction in that while we
many have averted a major catastrophe in the form of famine,
we have not yet been able to overcome the endemic hunger
and malnutrition that stalks the land. We have made
significant gains against in the matter of production of milk
and eggs.
But the time has come when we ask ourselves: How long
and at what cost can this progress be maintained? We are
certainly over.using our natural resources. The new concept of
environmental budgeting has a dimension of adding depreciation
of environmental capital to our gross national product. This is
not being done very efficiently in the country. We have as yet
no proper way of renewing and replenishing our natural
resources and that makes our problem even more serious. Let
us see some of the more tell-tale statistics:
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'It is a du6ious distinction in tnat wfiile we tfUly nave averted
a tfUljor catastrophe in the fonn of famine, we nave not yet
6em a6£e to overcome the endemic fiumger and
mafnutrition tnat staIR§ the {a.m£'.
~~
The global growth rate of population is 1.74 per year. The
same figure in our case is 2.1. According to projections, if this
global growth rate ,slides down to 0.96, the world population
will be 8.5 billion in the year 2025 AD., which is 35 years
from now. But this population would be 7.6 billion if the rate
of decline were to reach 0.59. But if the decline at the end of
the millennium is still 1.9, there would be no less than 9.5
billion people living in the world in that year.
Now this rate of population growth presents different
scenarios. There are the developed nations of the West. In
some countries, the populations are increasing at less than zero
growth rate, which means these are actually decreasing. There,
the meaning of family planning is exactly the opposite of what
we have. In Africa, where the growth rate of population is 3.5,
the saving grace is that the landmass is very large and initial
populations are not very high. The major increases in population
are thus taking place in the countries of Asia. China is certainly
number one in respect of the total population. But it is India
which is doing the greatest damage to the population,profile of
the world. We are already 853 million. Over and above, we are
adding another 17 million mouths to our number every year.
That way, the time is not very far when we would overtake
even China.
Now, add to this the animal population of India. They too
require food, land and water. That aggravates the problem still
further. For, we have about 20 per cent of the world's farm
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animal population on world's one-fourth or one-fifth of
farmland. Our cows and buffaloes are nearly 24 per cent, goats
23 percent and sheep 22 per cent of their respective number
in the world, whereas, only 3.5 per cent of our land is under
grazing and pastures. Thus, the total picture is that as against
2.5 per cent of the total landmass of the world that we have,
our human and animal populations are 16 per cent and 23 per
cent of their respective world populations. Certainly, it adds
to our problem a great deal.
Now, let us have a look at our demographic pyramid in
relation to tha~ of the developed world. In the advanced.
countries, the number of those above 65 has gone up between
1960 and 1985 from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent of their
populations. Similarly, those in the age-group of 0-14 have
come down from 23 to 22 per cent. In our own case too, there
has been some marginal improvement in the number of senior
citizens. It has gone up from 3.8 to 4.2 per cent only. But the
main problem in the developing world is the number of those
under 14. In India, these are 40 per cent of the entire
population and they all require shelter, clothing, education and
jobs to be able to become responsible citizens. In a dubious
way, this is our distinction; we can call India the land of youth.
For example, the late Mrs Indira Gandhi, while referring to these
crushing burdens used to say, "There are only two genuine
- majorities in India the youth and the poor." And there is a
nexus between the two.
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'...tlU fate, 9r[rs Indira (jandlii wliife referri11fJto tliese cruslii11fJ
Duraens used to say, "q'fUre are only tlOOgenuiru majorities
in India - tlU youtli and tlU poor".
~~
It is in this context that the UNDP concept of Human
Development Index becomes more relevant for us. We tell our
farmers they shall reap as they sow. It, in fact, is a great
proverb born of agriculture. But Prof Amartya Sen would tell
the politicians, "You can not reap what you do not sow".
Hence, we have to learn to plan in terms of human development
which consists of so many things in addition to higher literacy
and greater economic well-being.
In the United States, a new concept has lately come up. It
aims at developing an index of sustainability factors, which
includes biologicalsustainability, ecologicalsustainability, social
sustainability, and economic sustainability. This gives us a
basis on which to work out a reliable indicator of development,
provided precise data can be had.
I myself have been working for the past couple of years in
some villages of Tamil Nadu to develop a livelihood security
indicator, mainly as an educational tool, to create in the local
population, an awareness of the balance that ought to exist
between human and animal population, on the one side and
natural resources on the other. Thus, for the time being, this
indicator has three components, to which can be added many
more components to make it more versatile.
For example, in the United States, they also include in. it
human expenditure per capita. Now, as you all know, we are
third from the bottom in a list of 160 countries in terms of per
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capita income and expenditure. After the recent devaluation,
the situation must be worse. But from the point of view of
human development index, we stand 123rd in this list. Hence,
there has been some improvement in terms of economic
development. But it is difficult to achieve any substantial
improvement in the face of our runaway population growth.
Not Just Political Will But Political Action
Still, it is not that the situation is beyond help. The
Government can do a lot. For example, in Kerala where social
expenditure, as a result of the Government policies, has been
high judged by Indian standards, the results have indeed been
commendable. Similarly, in the Kanyakumari district of Tamil
Nadu, which was previously a part of Travancore State, the
- index of child mortality is the lowest in the State. So, the
question is no longer that of political will but one of political
action. Political will is always manifest in grandiose plans, but
what is really of importance is that which is actually achieved at
the grass-root level. There are excellent five-star medical
facilities available in the cities for those who have money. But
the overall medical and health-care in the villages is far from
being in good shape.
It is fairly easy to develop a livelihood security indicator.
Suppose, there is a village consisting of 400-500 families and it
produces an annual crop of say a hundred tonnes of rice or
jowar. Then, we can identify. with the help of people themselves,
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'PoCitical wi£{ is always manifest in grarniiose pfans.
'But w/iat is rea£[y of importarn:e is t/iat wfiidi is
actudfy acfiievea at tfie grass-root feveC.
~~
as to what should be the normal pattern of cultivation, how can
the fertilitybe improved and how many people can be sustained
and for how long. We have, so far, generally covered the
population and land factors in this respect. Now we shall do
so with many other ideas thrown in.
Let us see how we are managing our water resources. Take,
for example, Tamil Nadu. It is a rain-shadow region with a
tremendous exploitation of the ground water resources. The
recent Cauvery dispute has made it much worse. The same has
also happened to the Saurashtra region. Hence, it is a must that
one worked with the local people themselves as they are well
aware of the balance that exists between them, their animal
populatio~ and natural resources.
Another factor very important in this context is the amount
of diversification of employment achieved, viz., how many of
them are engaged in the primary sector and how many in the
. secondary and tertiary sectors. This is important because, the
total contribution of agriculture to the national income in the
United States is only 3.5 per cent. So, the diversification of
unemployment is a good indicator of the security of livelihood.
The economic sustainability of a family would largely depend
on the number of secondary job-holders. It is here that female
literacy becomes important. Most men in the villages waste
money on alcohol. There is something like male alcoholism
prevalent in the villages all over. Women are far more prudent
earners.
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Then, there is the enveloping problem of crowding near the
sea. A UNESCO publication says that about 60per cent of the
world population lives within 60 km from the sea coast. The
wqrld's most major cities are located in that narrow belt. For
instance, the most densely populated areas of China, India and
Bangladesh are situated along their sea coasts. Hence, "the
coastal area management in these countries must receive top
priority, particularly, when the possibility of a sea-level rise in
the next 30 years is very much on the cards.
There are a number of factors that contribute to sea-level
rise. There is the thermal expansion of the oceans and there is
the melting of the glaciers and similar other ice caps. During the
last 100 years, the sea-level already recorded a rise of 15 cm
Fortunately, there is now a treaty among the industrial super
powers not to resort to mining in the Antarctica. But even so, it
is a fair bet that there could be another rise of 18 cms by the year
2030. The Inter-Governmental Committee on Climatic
Changes has also reached the conclusion that whatever we may
do in this respect, there will be some rise in the sea-level. That,
to me, seems a serious prospect.
For example, at least one-thirds of the city of Bombay is
prone to be submerged in any such eventuality as it is a low-
lying area. Only recently, a sever cyclone hit the Bangladesh
coast. The damage to life itself was enormous. It left 200,000
dead. As to the loss of property, the picture can be better
imagined than described. Now, this can very well happen in our
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'In ~ra£a, if one arives iown to 5t£[eppeyfrom 'l'rivanirum,
tlU spectad~ tfiat liits one in tlU eye is tfiat, too many
peopCe are riving too dose to tlU sea '.
~~
own country too, in several coastal areas. While this is the
position, people are simply helpless because they cannot but live
where they can.
This extreme population pressure in the coastal areas is also
damaging the coastal eco-system. The mangroves which
. constitute a shield against the sea intrusion since these are an
intertidal vegetarian, and the coral reefs are also getting
devastated for a variety of reasons. Tourism, aqua-culture,
industry and human settlements - all are among the chief
culprits.
In Kerala, ifone drives down to Alleppey from Trivandrum,
the spectacle that hits one in the eyes is that too many people
are living too close to the sea. In Madras too, one can find
Housing Board's own flats being constructed right up to the
edge of the sea, because that is the only Government land
available, even though it is against the rule framed by the
Ministry of Environment.
Not just that. Our precious wetlands are getting increasingly
silted up. This has been happening because of the enormous
human pressure, cultivation nearby and the land erosion that
has been taking place for several years now. Our protected
areas, even nationally protected ones, are in distress. Certainly,
it is causing distress to the migratory birds and precious
aquifauna.
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For about the same reasons, even the fish production is
suffering. Although as much of carbon is fixed in the sea as on
the land, we get out food largely from land. That is where the
protection of sc;:>fielrtility, conservation of arable lands and non-
conversion of good farmlands into non-farm purposes, assumes
paramount important. For example, if our population were to
reach one billion mark in the next 10-15 years, (as is most likely!)
then it is inescapable for us to formulate and active policy of
land-use in the country. We must set apart areas which oughtto
be under conservation regimen and restored to their original
potential. Similarly, we must look after the areas capable of
sustainable intensification.
As for the non-farm use, the land colonisers around the
major cities, who are in collusion with the politician, are indeed
playing havoc. The bodies like the Land Use Commission can
do precious little in the matter because of the political system
prevailing. A similar fate met the model legislation on the use
of ground water. Last year, I chaired the National Committee
on the Use of Ground Water. In many parts of the country,
the situation isjust alarming. Those who have money and want
to set up their own tube wells, get away with anything while the
poor farmer who does so with a NABARD loan, has to conform
to so many restrictive guidelines.
In the matter of fuel-wood deficit too, it is the poor who are
suffering. An FAO publication puts the total number of people
who are suffering because of fuel-wood deficit at three billion,
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'I, tlierefore,tio not regard: tlie woman as tlie culprit who is
carrying lier c/iifd in lier arms, but afso carring a smal{
bundle of fud-wood twigs on lier liead'.
~~
out of which more than two billion live in the rural areas. Some
of the lands have, therefore, to be kept reserved for producing
fuel-wood. If we have to change this equation, then we -shall
face many more problems of energy management.
But we are in the habit of blaming the poor for all such
problems. However, I do not find this to be the real position. For
example, in Nagaland there are 290 saw mills which do the
most damage. I, therefore, do not regard the woman as the
culprit, who is carrying her child in her arms, but also carrying
a small bundle of fuel-wood twigs on her head. She is doing
that for sheer survival. Moreover, even such women and
children are mostly exploited by the contractors, who make all
the money by employing them.
But, there is all the same, a big danger in all this. That is,
the possible destruction of gene-pools. For example, a child
chopping away some of the mangroves may be doing a grievous
damage. The mangroves have a gene which has a tolerance for
sea water. They are thus very necessary for combating the sea-
level rise. In any case, mangroves can help us develop such
varieties of rice and other crops that will have the capacity to
tolerate the sea-water intrusion. This kind of technology where
by the genes can be transferred is now available in modem
biotechnology and it may hold hope for for future. It has the
promise of a new economic opportunity by producing 'new
combinations and materials.
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Now let me refedo a much-discussed problem in the media.
My reference is to the global climatic changes due to what we
call green-house gases. These are heat absorbing gases and if
the earth is capable of sustaining life, it is mainly because of
the presence of these gases. So, nothing is per se wrong about
these gases. But, what is disturbing today, is the imbalance
between the emission and absorption of carbon dioxide.
For the firsttime there is an indication that human activities
and life-style changes have led to an increase of carbon dioxide,
nitrous oxide, chloro-fluro-carbon. And who are the culprits? It
is the countries which are living at much higher standards of life,
rather than those which support greater populations. This
meaI1S, that the per capita pollution is very high in the rich
countries. The countries inEurope, Soviet Union and the United
States, alone account for 50 per cent of these pollutants. There
are many options open to these countries to minimise this
damage. But so far, no agreed mix of interventions has been
adopted.
Towards aD Earth Charter
All eyes are, therefore, riveted on the next UN conference
on Environment and Development to be held in Rio in Brazilon
the occasion of the World Environment Day 1992. It is hoped
that this conference willthrow up an Earth Charter. This charter
will hopefully concretise the total thinking on environment that
has emerged during the last ten years. Mrs Gro Harlem
Brundtland and the experts associated with her have already
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"for tlU first ti11U,tlUre is an im!uatian tliat human cutivities am!
[ife-styfe clianges liave fed to an iticrease in car6on-diotdtfe,
,
nitrous otdtfe, cliforof[uro-car6on '.
~~
come up with a report entitled "Common Future". Anyway, the
Earth Chapter thus emerging, is going to be the global agenda
from 1993 right into the 21st century. There are many more
ideas floating around. Our late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi too,
had two years ago, in Belgrade, come up with a thought which
aimed at starting a Planet Protection Fund.
Anyway, it is for the first time that many important
environmentalists are pressing to accord a very high priority to
the population issue in this world agenda. The whole point is
that, in any worthwhile Earth Charter, there should be a sharing
of the resources - the same as has been the issue in the North-
South dialogue. But alas! there is as yet no agreement on the
point.
A global programme on environment has no meaning if it
does not accord the same high priority to resources allocation
as, for example, the population issue has. Baulked of this
major input, it will remain just another ritual document, which
people gathered discuss, deliberate upon and adopt with all the
profundity on their part, and then know now where it has gone.
However, I hope that this one that accords equal weightage to
environment and population, would be taken more seriously as
it present. I for one, therefore, would have titled the Brundtland
report as "Common Present". For me today is a reality,
tomorrow a possibility.
Finally, I come from where I had started - to work out a
livelihood security index. That package, should, in the first
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place be for the bottom one billion of the humanity; something
ought to be done for them today, and not tomorrow. Poverty,
Mrs Indira Gandhi rightly said, was the number one issue and
it remains so even today.
Once having placed the problem of the bottom billion in the
right perspective, there should be a speedy and cost-free sharing
of green technology. For, without upgrading the bio-technology,
we cannot produce more for the growing population. Ecological
security should frill in the third place. Population question
cannot be studied without all these factors taken together.
However, I shall deal with the population policies the last of all.
Growing Violence
When we look at the global situation, what strikes one most,
is the growing violence-violence all-round, without as well as
within. We all recently saw the pictures of the Gulf War. You
know there was the oil slick-the beautiful fossil oil spilled
all-over the sea. The suffering of the birds was beyond words.
But even more harrowing was the fact of indifference, with
which the whole thing was viewed. We have become insensitive
to suffering as a whole.
Mahatma Gandhi had once very aptly asked: How can you
be non-violent to nature if you continue to be violent to each
other? This question gains great poignancy from the fact that
even one per cent less expenditure on arms can provide food
and health-care to numberless children in the world.
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'1 for onel tlUreforel would /iave titfed tlU tJJrundt {and
report as 'Common Present '. ~or mel today is a
reality I tomorrow a possi6i£ity. '
~~
,
It is a question of ethos; it is a question of commitment. Of
course, no one can unilaterally do anything about it. But it istime
we gave thought to the question why there is this growing
violence in human society. We must also ponder over the fact
as to why there is a much greater violence prevailing in the
developing world, India included. Are there large economic
inequalities? Are the legitimate rights of people being not
looked into? Or, is it due to the fact that increasing population
pressures are causing greater social tension?
Need for Community Initiatives
It istherefore, time when I availed myself of the opportunity
to deal with the great population debate and the issues which
are most bothersome. Since most of the time we have been
saying that population problem has to be placed at the heart of
the development and planning process, much of the related
questions will also in passing be covered.
The first thing, in this connection is that during the past 40
years or so there has been a total centralisation and
bureaucratization in our planning processes. Gone are the 30's
and 40's of this century when we were talking of Gram Swaraj.
That was a great revolutionary slogan from the visionary named
Mahatma Gandhi. But soon we forgot everything about it.
Today, education has to be provided by the government;
health has to be provided by the Government; water resources
have to be husbanded by the Government, population
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programme has to come from the Government. These are mere
examples illustrative of the fact, that today, there is total
dependence on the Government, whether in terms of policy
initiatives or resource allocation.
Thus, the initiatives and resources which the community
itself used to provide, have completely dried up or reduced
considerably. The system has so manipulated the avenues that,
even ifyou are a Member of Planning Commission, you can do
precious little to bring back the community initiative and
involvement even in programme of self~-help.
In the Sixth Plan, I wrote a chapter called "New Deal For
The Self-Employed." It was then, that I found out, that mostof
the avenues of self-employment were already blocked because
the Government functionaries had permeated all those areas.
And it is very difficult to reverse this process because of the
populist measures and election promises. The result: we have
made the human being subservient to external agencies to the
extent that he had very little initiative left in him.
Almost the same applies to another area which is
westernisation and mega planning to the exclusion of our local
initiatives. The adage goes: "Think globally: Act locally." It
should in our national context read, "Think nationally: Act
locally." But what to do? All the decision-makes including
politicalbosses, industrialists, bureaucrats are sold on westernised
industrial and even sociological models.
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'We are going to speMtJ<j 11,000 crores on the '.J{p.rmada 'Dam,
tJ<j4,000 crore on tlU iJtfiri-'Dam aM so on aM so jortfi.
'But w/io is going to 6e tlU 6eruficiary?'
~-.G)
We started thinking big whether we launched industries,
irrigation dams or fertilizer plants. This has upset the priorities.
If we went to go for the sky or into the Antartica, I see very l,ittle
hope of achieving small miracles inthe nearfuture. We are going
to spend Rs 11,000 crore and the Narmada Dam, Rs 4,000
crores on the Tehri Ram and so o~ and so forth. But who is
going to be the beneficiary? A very small minority of big
industrialists and landlords. Apologists of the Narmada
Project will turn round to say that, it is also going to yield
extensive water for the parched fields of Gujarat. Certainly yes.
But how much salinity and water-logging is it also going to
. cause for want of proper drainage? No one wants to answer
such question.
India's Crushing Load
Now, finally the population. At the' heat of the whole
P!oblem lies the question: How long can we absorb 17 million
population that we add each year? We, in the language of the
media, are saying that we are adding one Australia to our
population every year. But, have we ever considered that even
Australia, a whole continent, has started talking in terms of
unemployment? And it is not just employment; it needs enough
civic services, enough land, enough water and enough food.
And all these things are scarce in India -at least the resource to
produce them are very much in short supply. To feed the
additional 17 million mouths we shall require an additional four
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million tonnes of foodgrains. In the Soviet Union, they require
one tonne per person on food grains every year. In contrast, we
require this much quantity to maintain four or five person. This
isthe Indian average. Perhaps, this goes to explain why we have
350 to 400 million people below the poverty line.
Now, even if,forthe time being we do not take into account
the other additional goods and services required, we cannot
ignore our huge cattle population. In Australia, they would not
have on more animals, say a cow, added, until they have
already provided for an additional two hedares of land for its
grazing. Hence, it is a very grave situation which again has to be
tackled, area by area. For example, in the Himalayas, the vast
animal population is used to provid neither milk nor meat, but
only manure. That, to a large extent, explains why the
magnitude of natural degradation has been so colossal in
nature's own habitat.
Often, we are asked why the family planning programme
has failed. Well, we have thus far seen from the analysis of the
Census data, that the only parameter which has a strong
correlation with the success of family planning is female literacy.
And female literacy, at the same time, means drafting them into
the productive work force of the nation. This, in other words,
means higher economic status for women. The factors which
flow from it are less of maternal and infant mortality and less
number of well-spaced children born.
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'In Jtustralia, tfuy wouiti not /iave one more anima£, say a cow,
aaau[, until tfuy /iave already provUfed:jor an atUitiono£
two fuctares of {am! for its grazing'.
~~
But our programmes and strategies have been far too
simplistic. We have offered to the people vasectomy or
tubectomy coupled with monetary incentives. The result is
that we are neither here nor there. The four states of Uttar
Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where
female literacy is low, contribute 50 per cent of the annual
popul~tion growth in the country. In some parts of Bihar, I
found to my horror zero female literacy among the
scheduled castes and scheduled tribed families. Even in
states like Tamil Nadu, where women are comparatively
more socially advanced, a female child is most likely to drop
out of the school after the age of 8-9 years. There can be
many reasons for this, but the one more compelling is that
the younger sibling needs to be looked after. Therefore, if I
have to pin-point only one reason for the failure of
family planning in India, then I can name it as the lack of female
literacy.
Status of Women: Main Change Agent
Let me tell you from personal experience that it is the
indices of social progress, as reflected in the status of women
that make for the success of family planning. Long years before,
I had gone to Holland; they had just then lost their colony,
Indonesia. Now Holland is a very small, but very densely
populated country of Europe, of which about half the
population happens to be Roman Catholic. And the Roman
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Catholics are conscientious opposes to family planning.
Therefore, at that point of time, the Dutch were worried as
to where they would send their surplus population. Indonesia
was a big colony and could absorb any number of the
surplus Dutchmen. But nothing of the sort happened. To
their surprise, what they found was that the Roman
Catholics were as much followers of family planning as the
Protestants.
The upshot of it is that, once a certain economic threshold
in terms of social evolution is reached, and a stake in the quality
of lifedevelops, itisimmaterial as to which religious denomination
you belong. In India too, this argument has lots of communal
overtones. That is due to the fact that, the essence of this
cardinal truth is notso wella.ppreciated. Most attitudinal changes
accompany the stage of quality of life achieved. That's ~hy
among the rich Hindus and their counterparts among the
Muslims, are found almost the same family structure, as also the
same aspirations of life.
Yes, religion does influence attitude to abortion. This has
happened even in the United States. For example, they
terminated their contribution to UNFPA because China was a
recipient of aid from this UN agency. And China had adopted
abortion and female infanticide as a methodology <?ffamily
planning. But as far as the small family norm is concerned, there
is not much difference on the point anywhere. This inference is
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"IJU upsfwt of it is tliat, ona a certain economk tlire.sfwU
in tenns of social evorution is reac/iei, and a stakg. in
t/ie quaCity of rife ieveCops, it is immateria£ as to
wliicli reCigious ienomination you 6eCong'.
~
supported by the example of Indonesia and Bangladesh. In
Indo~esia, there are marked trends towards the stabilising of
population.
I think a word on sex discrimination and the falling sex
ratio in the India population is also called for. As already
observed right in the beginning, this trend shows the social
backwardness of the Indian society. But even so, an interesting
sidelight from our own experience may be found instructive.
Prof K N Raj once wrote that he also studied the sex ratios
among the bovine species at a time when there was an
agitation going on against cow slaughter in the country. What
he found out in the very heartland of the country, so aptly
described as the cowbelt, was that there were more of oxen
there as compared to Kerala where the bovine population was
70:30 in favour of the cows. The inevitable conclusion was that
in the cowbelt the ox~n happened to be economically more
important because. of their role in transportation, haulage
and ploughing, whereas in Kerala which is a more
undulating land, it was the milk that turned out to be more
important. So, the major consideration is again economic
only . You do not kill the animal but you do not give enough
to it to eat. It would be very cynical if this analogy is applied
to the humans. But maybe, this argument is there in the seed
form. Behind every act of female infanticide, there is the
perception of a woman being less productive in pure
economic terms.
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Yes. We Can.
The last point. Can we, with the given resources, combat
the problems the country is faced with? The answer is, yes, if we
can draw upon the resourcefulness of the people themselves.
For example, we have taken up two districts of Tamil Nadu and
made a list of all the organisation which are working in the field
of family welfare. The list isquite large and impressive. There are
the Rotary Clubs; there are the Lions Club; there are non-
governmental organisations; and then there are all kinds of
Government departments and agencies. Seeing the list one
wonders if somehow a methodology of convergence and.
synergy among all of them could not be worked ottt even with
the available resources! But alas! All of them were working in
parallel channels. Such fractional parallelism can be broken
only with political commitment, beyond party politics.
Then how to sum up? All that I have emphasised is the
importance of developmental priorities and pathways to be
handled in such a way that we come to have a more egalitarian
society so that somehow this excruciating poverty comes to an
end, which means these unsustainable lifestyles do not exist.
Our natural resources are still what they are. But they are
enough if husbanded in a more proper manner. This cannot be
done by a Government agency alone. But it cannot-at all be
done without the Government help either. Let us, therefore,
hope that a methodology does finally emerge in which both
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'13efiiml every act of jemofe infantkUe, there is the perceptWn of a
'lIJo1tUln6eing fess proauctive in pure ecorwmic terms',
~~
these ends coverage. There is a great amount of thinking
along these lines even among the UN bodies, say, like the
UNDP and the World Bank. Happily, they have for the first
time started talking in a different language in terms of
poverty and human development! Let me hope these
thoughts get reflected in few pathways of development
and priorities of resource-allocation.
.
.
.
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Copyrignt 1992POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDJA
(Formerly FamIly Planning Foundation)
Ed P K Nijhawan
First Reprint: 1995
First Publishedin 1992 by:
K Balakrishnan
Secretary and Treasurer,
Population Foundation of India,
B-28, Qutab Institutional Area, New Delhi -110 016
Composedand Re-printedby:
SIt VER BYTES
, G-50, Green Park
New Qelhi~ 110 916
Editing and Production:
SandhyaPhingra<
Transcribed by:
..
Sujattta Ramesh
..
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