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Unravelling Indias Demogrphic Future_Population Projetion for States and Union Territories 2021-2051_Summary |
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UNRAVELLING
INDIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE
Population Projections for States and Union Territories
2021–2051
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA 1
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The entire world has been closely observing India’s
demographic trajectory, as we have become the
most populous nation on the planet, surpassing
China. This gives India an instrumental role in
shaping global demographic trends, owing to its
large youth population. Over the coming decade,
it has the potential to effectively leverage its
demographic and gender dividends for sustained
economic development through both internal
and international migration. This encompasses
an important demographic benchmark, wherein
India’s population growth is sustained by significant
population momentum arising from its large base.
Currently, there is a lack of reliable population
projections, not only for the national level but also
for the states and Union Territories [UTs]. Most of the
existing projections are based primarily on the data
from the old censuses. At present, policymakers
largely rely on the population projections published
in 2019 by the Registrar General of India, based on
the 2011 Census, which provide estimates only up
to 2036. Over time, population projections have
become obsolete, rendering the input data used in
their formulation potentially extraneous. Secondly,
a sustained flow of migrants from the labour-
surplus to labour-deficit states may have reshaped
the demographic profiles of both the sending and
receiving destinations. Thirdly, the demographics
of most nations, including India, have changed due
to the pandemic, which disrupted age structures
and smooth trajectories of life expectancies. Finally,
most projections are made at the national level and
do not cover all states, especially the smaller ones
and UTs. This might have aggravated data voids in
accurate population estimates, and these estimates
are often serving multiple and divergent purposes.
Against this backdrop, a new set of population
projections has been prepared extending to the
middle of this century, with the objective of providing
the most reliable and updated population estimates
for India under the changed circumstances.
This exercise draws on a range of demographic
datasets, including the Census, the Sample
Registration System [SRS], the National Family
Health Survey [NFHS], the Civil Registration System
[CRS], and the National Sample Survey [NSS]. The
Cohort Component Method has been applied to 22
states with a population in excess of six million, as
enumerated in the 2011 Census. The smoothed age–
sex distribution from the 2011 Census was carried
forward to 2021 with fertility, mortality inputs from
the SRS and migration data from the NSSs. These data
sources were then used to project the demographic
inputs, which were subsequently used as the basis
for population projections till 2051. Appropriate
adjustments have been made for Andhra Pradesh,
Telangana, Jammu and Kashmir [UT], Ladakh [UT],
and Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu
[UT] to account for boundary changes since the
2011 Census. Mathematical models—specifically
the curve estimation regression model—were
employed to project the populations of the rest of
the smaller states and UTs.
This study posits the Gompertz Curve [GC] for
projecting future fertility patterns at both national
and state level. These were classified and assumed
different set of lower asymptotes to project the future
population. Life expectancies at birth were projected
using the Logistic Curve [LC] method. Gender-specific
life tables were created to encompass the bearing
of pandemic on life expectancy at birth using the
Age-Specific Death Rates obtained from SRS data
for 2020 and 2021. These rates were subsequently
transformed into nMx values for constructing life
tables at the state level. Migration patterns and sex
ratio at birth [SRB] were projected using logarithmic
convergence models.
The findings highlight that the demographic
transition over the next three decades will be
characterised by a steady decline in fertility and
constant improvements in life expectancy at birth.
2 POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
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The Total Fertility Rate [TFR] is projected to decline
from the current level of two children per woman
in 2021 to 1.67 by 2051 under medium-variant
assumptions. Fertility is anticipated to decline in
all parts of the country, though at varying pace.
Northern states are now expected to play a leading
role in shaping India’s demographic trajectory, as
southern states—having largely completed their
fertility transition phase—exhibit fertility rates at
or below replacement level, leaving limited scope
for further decline. The Crude Birth Rate [CBR] is
expected to decline appreciably from 17 per 1000
population in 2021 to 10.8 by 2051. Consequently,
the annual number of births will fall from the current
level of 23 million to 17.1 million during the same
period. The primary driver of such demographic
changes is the expected reduction in fertility
rates over the next three decades. Crude Death
Rate [CDR] on the other hand, will show a modest
increase from 7.7 to 8.6 over the same period—
reflecting an increase in the ageing population and
its consequences. As a result, life expectancy at
birth is projected to increase moderately, with male
life expectancy rising from 66.6 years in 2021 to 75.4
years in 2051, and female life expectancy from 70.9
to 81.4 years. Thus, the rate of natural increase in
the population would fall to 0.22 percent from the
current level of 0.8 percent.
India’s total population is expected to reach 1590.1
million by 2051 from the 2021 base population of
1355.8 million, indicating an increase of 17.3 percent
or a 0.5 percent annual increase. Our projected
figures are much lower than the medium-variant
assumptions adopted in other recent projections,
including those by the United Nations [2025] and by
Kulkarni [2021]. This can be attributed mainly to two
reasons—the use of updated fertility trends and
the inclusion of latest data in the core assumptions
behind the population projections. The proportion
of the child population [0–4] dwindles from 9.3
percent to 5.4 percent in a span of the next three
decades. The population in ages 15–59 years,
comprising workers, peaks at 65.8 percent in
2031 before declining to 62.7 percent by 2051. The
proportion of the elderly population [aged 60 and
above] rises substantially from one in ten persons in
2021 [9.6%] to two in ten persons [20.4%] by the end
of the projected horizon. This demographic shift is
further reflected in an increase in the median age of
the population from 29 to 40 years, reinforcing the
ongoing demographic transition reflected in terms
of an ageing population. Urban–rural population
projections using the revised UN [2018] method
suggest that, by the mid-21st century, one out of
every two persons in the country will be residing in
urban agglomerations.
The study classifies India into six geographical
regions for analytical purposes1. Population
projections suggest that regional demographic
patterns across the country are expected to
become more varied in the years to come. As these
states in various regions are at different stages
of demographic transition, they require tailored
policy and programme interventions for their
socio-economic development. While large-scale
demographic shifts are underway, our population
projections suggest that the country will fall short
of achieving population stabilisation even by
the middle of the 21st century. Given the current
demographic trajectories, it may take another half
a decade to achieve this target. On the other hand,
most of the southern states are projected to see
population decline beginning around 2036, with
the region as a whole expected to reach this stage
by 2041. The projected results also suggest that
India’s demographic dividend window might close
by 2031, underscoring the importance of harnessing
its benefits before its influence on economic growth
begins to wane. The education and skill development
systems in our country must be fine-tuned to ensure
that they can effectively respond to and absorb the
available opportunities before they disappear.
1 1: Northern region [Jammu and Kashmir [UT], Ladakh [UT], Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, National Capital Territory [NCT]
of Delhi, Rajasthan and Chandigarh]
2: C entral region [Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh]
3: Eastern region [Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand].
4: Western region [Gujarat, Maharashtra, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu]
5: S outhern region [Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Goa, Puducherry, Andaman Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep]
6: North-eastern region [Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya and Assam].
POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA 3
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About Population Foundation of India
Founded in 1970 by the late J.R.D. Tata, Population Foundation of India is a leading
non-governmental organisation (NGO) working in the field of population dynamics,
gender equity, and sexual and reproductive health (SRH). It addresses population
issues within the context of empowering women, men, and youth, enabling them to
make informed decisions about their fertility, health, and well-being.
The organisation's approaches include strategic engagement with policymakers, media,
and other key stakeholders; knowledge generation and dissemination; leveraging
technology; scaling up pilot projects; and social and behaviour change communication.
Population Foundation of India collaborates closely with and provides technical support to
national and state governments, as well as other NGOs.
About The International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD)
The IIMAD is a non-profit research think tank based in Kerala, India and primarily
works on the intersection of migration and development. IIMAD was established in
2019 by Professor K C Zachariah, President and Professor S Irudaya Rajan, Chair. IIMAD
collaborates with government and NGOs that deal with refugees, diasporic migrants,
and migrant workers in the region.
The IIMAD tries to serve as a node in the domain of migration with excellence in cutting
edge academic scholarship that fosters practice-oriented research and policy formulation
pertaining to international migration. The IIMAD, with its distinguished scholar
community, works to develop a new thematic pathway and facilitate the future scholars
to disseminate knowledge through academic publications, data banks and conferencing.
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@PopFoundIndia
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@populationfoundationindia
www.populationfoundation.in
Map Disclaimer
This map of India has been drawn for illustrative and artistic purposes only.
It may not accurately reflect the current official boundaries, names, or territories of
Indian states or union territories. No part of this map is intended to infringe upon the
legal, territorial, or political integrity of India as defined by the Government of India.
If any inaccuracies exist, no offence or claim of authority is intended by this
depiction. For any official use or reference, please consult maps issued by the
Survey of India and other authorised agencies.
All illustrations used on the cover are representative and purely artistic.
They are not indicative of any specific individual, community, or demographic group.
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