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India%C2%92s Population Growth and Policy Implications (Brief-1_Supported by UNFPA) |
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India’s Population Growth and
Policy Implications
Total Fertility Rate
The average number of children
a woman would have by the end
of her childbearing years, if she
bore children at the current age-
specific fertility rates
Wanted Fertility Rate
The average number of children
a woman would have by the end
of her childbearing years minus
unwanted births, if she bore
children at the current
age-specific fertility rates
Crude Birth Rate
Number of live births per 1,000
population in a given year
Mistimed births
A birth that occurred when a
woman did not intend to bear a
child, even though she desired
having a child later
Unintended births
A birth that occurred when a
woman did not want to have
any children at all, or any more
children
NFHS
The National Family Health
Survey (NFHS) is a large-scale,
multi-round survey conducted
since 1992-93 in a representative
sample of households, women
and men throughout India. The
survey provides district, state
and national information for
India on fertility, infant and child
mortality, the practice of family
planning, maternal and child
health, reproductive health,
nutrition, anaemia, utilisation
and quality of health and family
planning services.
What is the trajectory of India’s population growth?
According to the latest estimates by the United Nations, India has surpassed China
as the most populous country in 2023. Women in reproductive age (15 to 49 years
old) currently have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR)2 of 2.0 (Figure 1), which is below the
replacement level of 2.1 - a point at which a population has the exact number of
births to replace itself from one generation to the next. Fertility rates have declined
consistently across almost all socio-economic groups across the country, barring a few
states. India has also experienced a steady decline in crude birth rates (live births per
1,000 population in a given year), dropping by 17 points over the last five decades from
1971 to 2020 (Figure 2)3.
Figure 1
Total fertility rate of women from 1990-92
to 2019-21
Figure 2
Crude birth rate in India
from 1971 to 2020
NFHS-1
(1990-92)
3.4
37
1971
NFHS-2
(1996-98)
2.9
2.7
NFHS-3
(2005-06)
34
1981
30
1991
25
2001
NFHS-4
(2015-16)
2.2
2.1
Replacement Level Fertility Rate
2.0
NFHS-5
(2019-21)
For women in the age-group of 15 to 49 years;
Source: NFHS Rounds 3 – 5
Women in the reproductive age now have
a fertility rate lower than the replacement
level fertility rate
22
2011
20
2020
Source: Sample Registration System
Fewer children are born per
1,000 population in India
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Why will India’s population continue to grow, even at lower
fertility rates?
The population size and character of a country
undergo changes with socio-economic
development, better healthcare, and access to
family planning, a process known as ‘demographic
transition’. India is at the third stage of the
demographic transition and despite declining birth
rate, its population will continue to increase due to
(population momentum) a large cohort of young
people (born as a result of high fertility in the past)
will enter into the reproductive age. Population
projections estimate that in 2021 one in every four
Indian (27%) was a young person between 10 to 24
years (Figure 3)4, one of the highest numbers in the
world5. These are people who already are, or will
soon enter the reproductive age. Consequently,
India’s population is expected to grow until it peaks
at 1.67 billion people in mid-20636. However, with
reducing fertility rates, the share of younger people
will progressively reduce, and will eventually lead
to a decline in population as part of the natural
process of transition.
Figure 3
Population age structure transition
20%
30%
34%
8%
8%
2011
0-9 years
10-24 years
25-49 years
50-59 years
60+ years
2021
2031
13%
22%
38%
12%
15%
2036
Source: Population Projections for India and states 2011 – 2036, Census of India 2011
Share of people aged 24 years and younger is expected to reduce from half of the total
population (50%) in 2011 to about one-third (35%) in 2036
Do people in India want larger families?
Women in India want fewer children. According to
NFHS-5, the wanted fertility rate7 among women
in the reproductive age-group of 15 to 49 years is
1.6 children, lower than the current total fertility
rate of 2.0. Eighty-six percent of currently married
women and men with two living children wanted
no more children8. However, the gap between
current and wanted fertility rates varies with the
place of residence and background characteristics
of women (Figure 4). Women from rural areas,
those in the lower household wealth quintiles,
and those with none or less than eight years of
schooling, reported larger gaps between their
desired and current total fertility rates.
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Figure 4
Gap between Total Fertility Rate and Wanted Fertility Rate of women
by place of residence, educational and economic
categories
Categories
Fertility Rate
by religious and social categories
Categories
Fertility Rate
Rural
1.7
2.1
Hindu
1.6
1.9
Urban
1.4
1.6
No Schooling
Less than 5 years
complete
5 to 7 years
complete
8-9 years
complete
10-11 years
complete
12 or more years
complete
2.2
2.8
1.8
2.3
1.8
2.2
1.8
2.1
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.8
Muslim
1.8
2.4
Christian
1.7
1.9
Sikh
Buddhist/Neo
Buddhist
Jain
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
Other religions
1.7
2.1
Schedule Caste
1.7
2.1
Lowest
Second
Middle
2.0
2.6
1.7
2.1
1.6
1.9
Schedule Tribe
Other backward
class
Others
1.7
2.1
1.7
2.0
1.5
1.8
Fourth
1.5
1.7
Highest
1.4
1.6
Wanted Fertility Rate
For women in the age-group of 15 to 49 years; SourWcea:nNteFdHSF-e5rt,i2li0ty19R-a2t1e
Total Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rate
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As fertility rates have declined, the gains have
not been equally shared by all segments. Though
women in India want fewer children than they
currently have.
Those with no schooling or from the lowest
household wealth quintile have much higher TFRs
than the national average, although the decline in
their fertility rates has also been the highest within
these categories (Figure 5). The same is the case
for women from rural areas or those belonging to
marginalised social segments.
Figure 5
Categories of women with maximum decline in fertility rates between 2005-06
and 2019-21
2.9
2.1
3.5
2.8
3.9
2.6
3.4
2.4
4
2.2
3.09
2.09
Rural Residence No schooling
Lowest wealth
quintile
Muslims
Other religions Scheduled Tribes
Source: NFHS - 3 and NFHS - 5
TFR (NFHS-3)
TFR (NFHS-5)
Low female autonomy, socio-economic status and societal
norms play a major role in fertility behaviours
A woman’s perceived status and her childbearing
role dictates how soon and how many children
she has, driven largely by the number of surviving
children and their gender. Her educational and
economic status influence to a great extent the
degree of autonomy she has in decisions regarding
marriage and family planning.
Women have limited autonomy to take family
planning decisions
NFHS-5 data shows that while a high percentage
of married women have the autonomy to take
decisions jointly with their husbands about their
health (71%), and use of contraception (82%), just
one in ten women (10%) can take these decisions
on their own. Additionally, about eight percent
women who gave birth in the last five years
reported that they either wanted the child later
(mistimed births), or not at all (unwanted births).
The percentage of mistimed births was highest
among those less than 20 years old, and has
increased between 2015-16 and 2019-21 (Figure
6).
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Figure 6
Percentage of births to women who wanted them later, by mother’s age at birth
15-49 years
Less than 20 years
20-24 years
25-29 years
30-34 years
35-39 years
40-44 years
45-49 years
nn
NFHS-4 (2015-16)
4.2
4.1
4.8
5.6
4.7
4.9
3.9
3.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
1.7
1.4
1.0
0.7
0.3
NFHS-5 (2019-21)
For women in the age-group of 15 to 49 years; Source: NFHS Rounds 4 & 5, 2015-16 to 2019-21
Mistimed births are higher among younger women and have increased between 2015-16 and
2019-21, indicating barriers to family planning for these high fertility age-groups
Figure 7
Birth spacing of women with more than one child
Percent distribution of birth intervals
Age-group of mothers in years
15-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
36 months or
more
7%
34%
59%
67%
Girls married in adolescence have children
early and at closer intervals
More than half (53%) of currently married
adolescents have already begun childbearing9. Two-
thirds (65%) of them have had less than two years
of spacing between births in five years preceding
the survey, as against one-third (33%) among
20 to 29-year-old married women (Figure 7).
24 to 35 months
28%
33%
24%
19%
7 to 23 months
65%
33%
18%
14%
Source: NFHS-5, 2019-21
Most women who begin motherhood in adolescence have
children at intervals of less than two years
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Figure 8
Percentage of women with two living children who want to
stop childbearing, by number of living sons
65%
91%
Preference for sons continues to play a role
in fertility choices
Among currently married women who had
two living children, 26 percentage points more
women with two sons indicated a desire to
stop childbearing, compared to those with two
daughters (Figure 8). Enforcing a limit on the family
size could worsen gender discrimination and
skew the sex ratio against girls further.
Women with no living sons
Women with two living sons
For currently married women in the age-group of 15 to 49 years; Source: NFHS-5,
2019-21
Restrictive policies have a differential
impact on girls and women, and those
belonging to socio-economically deprived
segments of population
Restrictive population control measures fail to
address the systemic gaps due to which some
groups lag in adopting family planning. Punitive
laws do not address social norms that prevent
women from exercising their reproductive choices.
A qualitative study carried out to consider
the impact of a two-child norm for election to
panchayats in five states found that it resulted in
adverse consequences, especially for women and
marginalised groups10.
The study observed increased sex-selective and
unsafe abortions, instances of men deserting
or divorcing their wives, and families giving up
children for adoption to avoid disqualification. On
the other hand, those with money or influence
could circumvent the laws and continue in their
positions despite violating the norm. Respondents
adopted contraceptives only after the desired
family size and sex composition of children
was achieved. Apart from the social impact, the
disqualifications had an unequal effect on the
representation of women and marginalised groups
in panchayats.
How can India balance population growth with sustainable
development?
It is believed that a large and growing population
is a challenge to achieving developmental
goals, and also puts additional stress on the
environment through over-exploitation of natural
resources, adversely affecting people’s health and
living conditions. However, according to global
projections by the United Nations’ International
Resources Panel, less than one-third of the
anticipated increase in the use of natural resources
till 2050 would be the result of population growth11,
while the remaining would be due to increase in
per capita consumption with rising prosperity.
Over the past 25 years, the richest 10 percent of
the global population has been responsible for
more than half of all carbon emissions. That is,
each person consuming more will put a greater
burden on the environment, than a higher number
of people demanding more resources as a result
of population growth. Nevertheless, maintaining
lower levels of fertility for the next two to three
decades would reduce the burden of population
momentum in the latter half of this century, and
hasten the slowdown in population growth.
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Policy Recommendations
The following measures can play a role in promoting positive family planning and sexual and reproductive
health outcomes in India:
Promoting decentralised planning and
implementation of programmes related to
family planning and sexual and reproductive
health, with focus on local priorities and
vulnerable groups
As the data for India shows, there are significant
inter-state and inter-regional variations in
health and fertility outcomes, due to unequal
investments in health infrastructure, education,
women’s empowerment, and overall development.
Consequently, the policy and programmatic
response needs to address systemic gaps at
the local level in the delivery of family planning
and sexual and reproductive health (FP–SRH)
services, so that they are accessible uniformly
across the country. The response also needs to
adopt a convergent inter-departmental planning
and implementation model to address the social
determinants of health and fertility behaviours,
such as girls’ education, gender norms, early
marriage, women’s decision-making autonomy, and
social justice.
Advancing informed and evidence-based
discourse on population issues to dispel
popular myths and misconceptions
needs to be utilised effectively by policymakers
through regular exchanges with researchers, civil
society organisations working at the grassroots
level, and state-, district- and sub-district level
functionaries who implement programmes.
Looking at FP-SRH as a key component
of people’s well-being and sustainable
development
Considering the lifelong and inter-generational
effect of fertility decisions, and their subsequent
impact on the country’s development trajectory,
policies and programmes on FP-SRH need to
be a national priority kept front and centre of
sustainable development strategies, rather than
being a subheading under women’s health. As a
signatory to the ICPD Programme of Action, India
has achieved significant progress in addressing
high population growth through a rights-based
approach to family planning. With the shifting
demographic profiles of states, policies and
programmes have to address the needs of aging
populations in some regions, while increasing
livelihood opportunities in others with younger
populations, and balance population stabilisation
with efficient resource utilisation for sustainable
development.
Survey and research data are the building-blocks
of governance, and India has a robust system
of regular monitoring and evaluation of family
planning programme delivery. This knowledge base
References
1United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. UN
DESA/POP/2022/TR/NO. 3.
2The average number of children a woman would have by the end of her childbearing years if she bore children at the current age-specific fertility
rates
3Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2020
4POPULATION PROIECTIONS FOR INDIA AND STATES 2011 – 2036, Census of India 2011
5The State of World Population 2014, UNFPA
6World Population Prospects 2022
7The average number of children a woman would have by the end of her childbearing years if she bore children at the current age-specific fertility
rates, minus unwanted births
8Including those who were sterilised – International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) and ICF. 2021.National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5),
2019-21: India: Volume I. Mumbai: IIPS.
9International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) and ICF. 2021.National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), 2019-21: India: Volume I. Mumbai: IIPS.
10Nirmala Buch. Economic and Political Weekly. 2005. Law of Two-Child Norm in Panchayats
11United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2021). Global Population Growth and Sustainable Development.
UN DESA/POP/2021/TR/NO. 2.
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Population Foundation of India is a national non-
government organisation (NGO), founded in 1970 by
JRD Tata, that promotes and advocates for the effective
formulation and implementation of gender-sensitive
population, health and development strategies and
policies. Working with the government and NGOs, it
addresses population issues within the larger discourse
of empowering women and men.
Head office
B-28, Qutab Institutional Area, New Delhi – 110016
T: +91 11 43894 100 | F: +91 11 43894 199
Regional offices
Bihar | Uttar Pradesh
www.populationfoundation.in
@PopFoundIndia
@PopFoundIndia
@populationfoundationindia
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the lead
UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy
is wanted, every childbirth is safe, and every young
person’s potential is fulfilled.
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