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Focus 1997 April - June |
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1 Pages 1-10 |
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Volume XI NO.2
April-June, 1997
}
A BULLeTIN
OF POPULATION
FOUNDATION
OF INDIA
Governing Body Takes
POPU.lAiION IN PRIME
Stock of Grim Population Prospects MINISTER'S PRIORITY LIST
In his very first speech in
A special meeting of the
, Governing Board of the
Population Foundation of India
concern at the unabated growth ill
population. They felt that there should
be emphasis on female education to
was held in New Delhi on April 25 achieve the small family norm,
___ to.-9isSllssthe Report of the Techni~al improvement in the delivery system
Parliament as the new Prime
Minister of India, Mr I K GUjral
listed the priorities before his
government while seeking a
vote of confidence in the Lok
Group on Population Projections of family planning services ensuring
Sabha on April 22. He said
constituted by the Planning their quality, and that there should be
reining in population growth will
Commission, the findings of which
have recently been made public. The
report predicts a faster rate of
population growth in the coming
decades despite a country wide
programme to slow down the growth
rate. It belies the earlier hope of
achieving replacement level of fertility
by the year 2001 A.D. (see also page
six).
more allocation of resources for
education as well as family planning.
The Governing Board noted that
the States of Bihar, MP, Rajasthan,
UP, Haryana and Orissa continued to
experience high birth, death· and
growth rates as compared to the rest
of India. The national population
picture is influenced significantly by
excessive population growth in these
be one of the priorities before
his GovernmenL· alongxvjth
economic growth, welfare of
the
weaker
sections,
safeguarding secularism,
promoting scientific temper and
working for women rights.
makers for influencing national
The Chairman of PH, Dr Bharat States. The picture is more grim than thinking on the subject. It was decided
.•Ram, presiding over the meeting said what was anticipated 10 years back. to make a video presentation by the
h- :if statistical projections were looked
at objectively, the population
projectfon continued to be serious
due to constraint of resources,
ineffectiveness of the State
Governments and lack of political
will. He said it was heartening that
the new Prime Minister, Mr I K Gujral
in his very first day in Parliament
declared control of the high
population growth rate as one of the
priority areas of his government. Dr
Bharat Ram expressed the view that
an interface between the political
leadership at national and State level
and the intellectual leadership in the
country was essential.
FOCUS ON SIX STATES
It was thus decided to focus
attention on these six targeted States.
The Foundation would prepare a
di!,cussion paper highlighting the
rrlagnitude.of the population problem
iilld steps to be taken to tackle the
problem, such as creation of demand
for family planning services through
female education and infant mortality
.red uction and improving the coverage
and quality of services through
allocation of more funds for these
States.
It was decided to further
strengthen and enlarge the advocacy
Foundation on the current popula tion
situation and their implications to the.
Members· of Parliament.
It was decided that a delegation
of the Foundation should meet the
Prime Minister with specific
recommend-ations for allocation of
more resources and other steps to be
taken towards
pop,I1ation
stabilisation. The meetiryg with
Members of Parliament/Prime
Minister should be followed b~ similar
action in the targeted Sta\\es by.
arranging meeting with the respective
Chief Ministers and MLAs from
. different parties. It was decided that
th~ hI'S!: me~ting may be a.1'1'ang~d
?everal members participated in role of the Foundation and to have with the Chief Minister of Madhya
the deliberations and expressed more interface with media and policy Pradesh.
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Reproductive Rights
In a few days from now we would observe
yet another World Population Day on July
11 while the population of India keeps on
rising at a fast pace upsetting all earlier
calculations. This year's theme for the Day
"The Right to Choose - Reproductive
Right and Reproductive Health" has to be
realised in our own context.
Choice can be exercised only when
there is freedom or the right to choose.
How far away we are from the goal not only
in India but in the whole world comes out
in sharp focus from some of the facts
presented in this issue. Reproductive health
is a right both for men and women as part
of overall health, but women the world over
are the worst sufferers.
The emphasis suggested on maternal
and child health, immunisation, education
for the girl child, and progressive
participation of women in decision making
in India are in conformity with the theme of
Right to Choose. For Reproductive Right,
there has to be ready availability of quality
services within the means of the people.
These constitute socially desirable goals
in themselves, independent of any other
programme objectives. These are also
proven factors of fertility reduction. Success
on these scores is bound be rewarded with
the additional benefit of reduced family
> sizes without any external pressure of
incentives or disincentives.
- A Long Way to Go
eproductiv~ and sexual health is
"a right for both men and women.
Denial of this right is disastrous
particularly for women.
Altogether 350 million couples lack
information about contraception and
access to a range of contraceptive
services.
The following statistics are estimates:
All are drawn from reliable sources, but
the data are incomplete - itself an indicator
of the low priority given in the past to
sexual and reproductive health.
•. At least 75 million pregnancies each
year (out of a total of about 175
million) are unwanted; they result in
45 million abortions and over 30
million live births.
•. 585,000 women - one every minute - die
each year from causes related to
pregnancy. Nearly all are in developing
countries. Many times that number
suffer temporary or permanent
disability as the result of child birth.
Most of these lives and much suffering
could be spared by relatively low-cost
improvements in reproductive health
care.
•. About 200,000 maternal deaths each
year result from the lack or failure of
contraceptive services.
•. 120-150 million women who want to
limit or space their pregnancies are still
without the means to do so effectively.
•. 70,000 women die each year as a result
of unsafe abortion; an unknown number
suffer infection and other health
consequences.
•. 1 million people die each year as a
result of reproductive tract infections,
including sexually transmitted disea~es
(STDs) other than HIV / AIDS.
•. The total world-wide yearly cost of
better reproductive health care is
approaching $17 billion - less than one
week of world expenditure on
armaments.
The message is clear. Let us take
care of the mother, the prospective mother,
the child who is already born and the one
who has signalled its arrival, give women
their rightful place in the society and we
would win half the battle for controlling
population. The maternal and child health
programmes in India have thus far
concentrated on the child and practically
ignored the mother. It is time we gave
special attention to current and future
mothers.
World Population Day observed each year on July 11 will have "The
Right to Choose - Reproductive Rights and Reproductive Health" as the
theme for 1997.
Population Foundation of India has organised a Seminar on the day.
The s.ubjects of the Seminar would be Empowerment of Women,
Reproductive Health - Responsibilities, of Men and Women, and
Adolescent Sexuality, which would be discussed in three separate
sessions.
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FI Launches
Training Programme For Panchayat Nlembers
The Population Foundation of
India's projects on training of
Panchayat. members from the
district to the village level in
population,
family planning,
reproductive health, hygiene and
sanitation, etc. to supplement official
training programmes have got off to a
I start in the districts selected in Tamil
Nadu. Seven districts in six States of
the country, namely, Dharampuri and
Dindigul (Tamil Nadu), Chitradurga
(Karnataka), Pune (Maharashtra),
Sawai Madhopur (Rajasthan), Bankura
(West Bengal) and Lalitpur (Uttar
Pradesh), have been identified for
launching these projects. The major
criteria in selecting these districts are
that they are dispersed all over the
country, and are also located in States
ruled by different political parties.
The Gandhigram Rural Institute
in Tamil Nadu will be the consulting
and co-ordinating organisation for the
I two projects in Dharampuri and
'-
Dindigul Districts. The Council for
Health Education and Rural
Upliftment at Vadamadurai will
execute the project in Dindigul, while
that at Dharampuri will be executed by
the Satyamurti Centre for Democratic
Studies, Chennai.
Projects in other selected districts
would be launched within a month or
so. The consulting and co-ordinating
organisations, and the implementing
NGOs for all these projects have
already been identified.
With the process of d@mocratic
decentralisation of authority and
responsibility· set in motion by the
73rd Amendment of the Constitution,
elected Panchayats from the district to
the village level will have to shoulder
some -29 responsibilities, five of which
directly or partially pertain to issues
like general health care, population
and family planning, reproductive
health etc. The other responsibilities
which indirectly. relate to these issues
include environment, drinking water,
and female literacy. All elected
representatives at these levels have,
therefore, to equip themselves to carry
out these responsibilities in the best
interest of the community.
The need for such projects was
felt because the number of Panchayat
members to be trained is so vast that
no training institution under the
Government, with howsoever large a
network, can accomplish the feat in
reasonable time. For example, even
the smallest district in any State is
likely to have more than 4,000 members
from the district to the village
Panchayat levels. Even if a training
institute is functioning in a district, it
cannot handle more than 30 persons in
one training .programme. Even if the
Institute organises three training
programmes in a month or 36
programmes in a year, the total number
of persons trained by that Institute
cannot exceed 1100. In three years, it
may be able to provide training to
some 3300 persons and by then, the
next election would be due. Training
to members who do.-not get re-elected
would thus be a waste.
The second consideration that
weighed with the Foundation was that
it was f~lt that the purpose of this
training was not to routinely train
Panchayat members as individuals,
but as part of the Panchayat institution.
The main purpose of decentralisation
is to empower the Panchayati Raj
Institutions, so that they Can identify
and prioritise the programme needs of
their own people, identify and manage
resources, and implement the
programme. The objective of
empowerment thus would not be
achieved if only individuals from
Pimchayats are invited for training.
What would be needed is to bring the
entire Panchayat in one tr~ining
programme.
This would be difficult to achieve
for an institutional training system
since the whole of the Gram Panchayat,
or all the members of the Zila Parishad,
Kshetriya Panchayat or the Gram
Panchayat, would not be in a position
to leave their villages to attend training
programme in an institutional set up
for two or three days. Another point
which merits attention is the wide
variety in' the social, economic and
educational background of the
Panchayat members. Many· of them
may be illiterates or neo-literates and,
on the other hand, there may be highly
educated persons. Besides, 33 per cent
reservation for women in Panchayat
would mean that from traditionally
being mother, manager of the
household and a wife, they would
suddenly become members of a
decision making body. The element of
heterogeneity would necessitate
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PanchavatWi
;;
developing training material and
training programmes which could cater
to the different types of information
needs of the Panchayat members and
at the same time~ keep the micro level
developmental needs in mind.
This prompted the Foundation to
devise innovative programmes which
can ensure coverage of all the
Panchayat institutions in their own
topographical and social setting. The
Foundation, therefore, decided to
commission seven district projects to
cover all the Panchayat members in a
district in an eight .or nine month
period.
- -The project design has the
following main components :
1. A consulting organisation in a
State/District, which will develop
training material, conduct a need
assessment study, undertake pre
and post programme evaluation.
2. A lead Non-Government
Organisation in the concerned
district will implement the project.
3. The consulting organisation is to
organise a three to five day
workshop for the members of the
lead NGO in different aspects of
population, family planning,
reprod1;1ctivehealth, female literacy,
environment, nutrition, etc.
4. The NGO is to organise a three to
five day workshop for the members
of Zila Parishad and Kshetriya
Panchayat for imparting training
on the above aspects with the
involvement of subject matter
specialists and the consulting
organisation. The participants
would be encouraged to ask
. questions after the presentation.
5. The proceedings of this workshop
is to be video taped for further
training of the Panchayat members.
6. Tne NGO would identiiy 100 to 125
resource persons withi.., the district.
such as, reti:ed school teachers,
educated Panchayat members, ex-
soldiers; etc and give them three
day orientatio~ at the block level
inviting 10 to 15 at a time. The
training would include use of video
cassettes, and other printed
material on different aspects of
population, family planning,
reproductive health, environment,
nutrition, female literacy, etc.
7. Each of the resource persons, after
training, would be supplied a video
cassette and sufficient quantity of
printed material and would be
assigned five or six villages to
undertake training programmes for
the Panchayat members.
8. The resource persons would then
visit a Panchayat, distribute
literature on one topic and show
the video cassette on that subject.
They would request the Panchayat
members to study the printed
material and also discuss the
contents of the video cassette
among themsEelves. In case there
are clarifications or questions,
these can be discussed in the
subsequent visit of the resource
person. Next day, the resource
person may visit another village
and repeat the process. In this
manner, he would be able to cover
a mInImUm of six village
Panchayats in one week.
9. Next week, he woul~ repeat his
visit to the. villages in the same
sequential order for discussions on
the subject of previous week's visit
and also to take up the next topic.
10. In this manner, one resource person
in about two-and -half month's
time, would be able to cover all the
villages within his operational area.
Subsequently, he can revisit the
area for consultation and follow-
up. The resource persons would. be
compensated for the incidental
expenses.
11. The lead NGO in the district would
be responsible for supervising the
resource persons and also
conducting
reorientation
programmes.
12. The consulting organisation would
conduct a mid-term evaluation
through a workshop, in which the
members of NGO, the resource
persons aDd members of Panchayat
from Zila Parishad and Gram
Panchayat level would be invited.
There are several inherent
advantages in this approach. The
proposed methodology envisages
training of all the Panchayat members
in one programme. The training would
be field based and within the social
and physical environment of the
Panchayat members which is likely to
help in understanding the community's
health problems at the village level.
Use of a large number of resource
persons would mean leaving behind a
group of specialists whomPanchayat
members would consult for their
problems. Modern communication
technology would be used to cover a
large number of Panchayat members.
Involving the NGOs in the district
would enable them to act as an adjunct
to the Government training
programmes for the Panchayat
members.
Above all, the project would share
the load of training a large number of
Panchayat members in the district and
would thereby supplement the
Government efforts.
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Population
Population Projections
Leave No Room For Comfort
The population of India in 1996 is estimated at 934.2 million. In the next 20 years it is expected
to rise to 1263.5 million. The write up, based on a paper by Dr K Srinivasan, Executive
Director, PFI, discusses the grim implications for the future. Dr Srinivasan was a Member of
the Technical Group of the Planning Commission which made the projections.
ndia is rapidly heading towards the
In terms of growth rates, during growth rate as compared to earlier
billion mark in population at the the period 1991-96, the population decades. On the other hand, among the
start of the new century. The increased at an annual rate of 1.98%, as large Hindi-speaking States of Uttar
population of India which was 342 compared to 2.12% during 1981-91and Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and
million when the country attained 2.22% during 1971-81, which was the Rajasthan (euphemisti-cally referred to
__ independ~nce in 1947,would thus treble highest growth rate ever experienced in in Hindi as bimaru or 'sick' States), the
itself in about half a century.
Among the States, the largest
population is in Uttar Pradesh with an
estimated 156.7 million in 1996 and the
smallest is Sikkim with a population of
0.49 million. The State of UP has a
population size that is exceeded only by
four other countries of the world
(excluding India): China, USA,
Indonesia, and Brazil. There are
enormous variations among the States
not only in terms of population size but
also in terms of density, socio-economic
the country as a whole. In the pre-
independence period, 1901-1951, the
average annual growth rate was only
0.83%. Although the growth rates have
begun to record moderate declines from
1976 ( 1971-81),the growth rate for 1994
is estimated at 1.94%per year being the
difference of a birth rate of 28.6 and a
death rate of 9.2 per 1000 population.
This growth rate of 1.9%per year is very
high and when allowed to persist has
the potential to double the population,
to 1868 million in 36 years!
growth rate continues to be quite high
with decadal increases during 1981-91
of 25.48, 23.54, 26.84 and 28.44%
respectively.
Recently projections for the future
size of the population for the country as
a whole and at the State level have been
made under the most
Size plausible sets of assumptions
on the future course of
conditions, cultural practices, social
India's population problem is thus fertility, mortality and migration by a
norms regarding marriage, status of not only its large size but the persistent Technical Group constituted by the
1-
,]
women in society, efficiency of state
high rates of growth. The picture seems
Planning
Commission
under the
governance and many other factors that different when we consider the States Chairmanship of the Registrar General
influence the health seeking behavior separa tely. During the decade 1981-1991, of India (August 1996). The projected
and conditions of the population, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Goa registered figures extracted from this report for
especially the reproductive health of growth rates of 13.98,14.94, and 15.96% the years tOOl and 2016 for selected
women arid health and survival status respectively, far lower than the national States and the country as a whole are
of the female child and acceptance of average of 23.58. These States have also furnished in the Table below.
family planning.
recorded a substantial decline in the
The population that is expected to
POPULATION OF INDIA AND SELECTED STATES (IN MILLIONS)
Year
India
Bihar
M.P. Rajasthan U.P.
T. Nadu
1996
934.2
93.1
74.2
49.7
156.7
59.5
2001
1012.4
101.8
81.2
54.5
174.3
62.3
2006
1094.1
111.1
88.6
59.6
194.1
65.0
2011
1178.9
121.3
96.6
65.3
217.1
67.6
2016
1263.5
132.3
105.1
71.4
242.9
69.9
% increase
Kerala
31.0
32.5
34.2
35.6
36.9
be added to India i..'l the next 20 year
period 1996 to 2016 is 329.3 million,
more than the total added during the
previous two decades of 1971-91 (which
was 298.1 million) and almost equal to
the population of India at the time of
independence. This huge expected rise
in the population of the country will
1996·2016 35.2
42.1
41.6
43.7
55.0
17.5
19.0
take place inspite of substantial
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reductions in fertility rates in the future
years, when many States would have
reached the replacement levels of
fertility.
More than half of this addition of
329 million during 1996-2016(54%)will
come from just four States; Uttar Pradesh
(86.2 Million), Bihar (39.3 million),
Madhya Pradesh (31 million) and
Rajasthan (21.7 million). In the coming
years a higher and higher proportion of
the additions to India's population will
be coming from these four States. On
the other, hand Kerala and Tamil Nadu
which constituted together 9.7% of the
population of the country in 1996 will
be contributing only 17.2 million or
5.2% of nation's additions during 1996-
2016.
This continued increase in the
population of India, expected in the
future years, will be due to two factors;
firstly the population momentum factor
which is due to an increase in the
proportion of women in the
reproductive years of age, 15 to 49,
(who are already born in a high fertility
regime of the past ), swelling up the
ranks of potential mothers and secondly
due to slow pace of decline in marital
fertility not sufficient to offset the pace
of increase in the number of mothers.
This is an important factor for the large
Northern States, due to which, UP's
population is expected to grow, by the
year 2016, to 226.6 million, more than
the population of India in 1901 and
more than that of U.S.A in 1990with no
comparable resources for development.
The combined population of the four
States in 2016, will be almost equal to
the population of India as whole in
1971.The figures are frightening indeed.
The future population increase in
terms of growth rates rather than
numbers, are expected to be at 1.51,1.46,
1.45 and 1.39% per year during the
quinquennia 1996-2001, 2001-06, 2006-
11 and 2011-16compared to rates of2.17
and 1.98%inrecentperiods of1971-1991
and 1991-96. Though these could be
considered as substantial reductions in
the growth rates in the future rates, any
-'
West Bengal (2009)
Tamil Nadu (1993)
Uttar Pradesh (Beyond 2100)
Rajasthan (2048)
Punjab (2019)
.
Orissa (2010)
Maharashtra (2008)
~.
Kerala (1988)
Madhya Pradesh
(Beyond 2060)
Kamataka (2009)
Haryana (2025)
Gujarat (2014)
Bihar (2039)
-
Assam (2015)
Andhra Pradesh (2002)
r I
fit"
*
,§ 99%
-, me 1 EHM
,India (2026)
.
I
1
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2080
growth ra te over 1%per year is still to be
considered as unduly high for India
with a population base rising over 1000
million and continuing to grow. These
high rates are expected to occur inspite
of substantial declines in fertility
assumed in the coming years, with many
of the States reaching the replacement
level of TFR of 2.1 achieved by 2016.
However, according to the
projections of the Technical Group, the,
large Northern States are not expected
to reach the replacement levels of fertility
before 2040;Bihar by 2039; Rajasthan by
2048; Madhya Pradesh after 2061 and
Uttar Pradesh after 2100'. (See chart on
page 6).
At the political level, 'with the
universal adult franchise guaranteed to
every citizen above 18 years of age, the
States that have a higher rate of
population growth will have
proportionately a larger number of
representatives in Indian Parliament.
States wi th higher growth ra tes will tend
to have an increasingly greater
representation in Parliament and hence
a better political leverage compared to
the States which have a slower rate of ( .
growth of population. Indian leadership
were aware of this problem and seem to
have resolved it very wisely, by a
Constitutional Amendment and with an
Act of Parliament in 1977, by which the
number of representatives to Parliament .
from each State was frozen at the 1971
census level. The Constitution 42nd
Amendment Act 1976, section IS, has
specifically been made to ensure that
those States that do well to control their
growth rates are not penalized by
reduction in their representation to
Parliament. This amendment is
applicable only until year 2000. As the
law stands at present, from the year 2001
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Population Clock -
A Big Draw in Social Development Fair
opulation Foundation of India
put up an attractive stall at the
Social Development Fair
organised by the India Trade Promotion
Organisation at Pragati
Maidan, New Delhi, from
April 12 to 20. There were
more than 100 stalls set up
by NGOs working in the
fields of women
empowerment, health,
rural
development,
sanitation, employment
generation etc. Central
Government Depart-
ments such as Social
Welfare and Health &
Family Welfare, State
Governments and United
Nations agencies also
participated in the Fair.
The Lok Sabha
Speaker Mr P A Sangma
who formally inaugurated
the Fair, paid a visit to the
I PFI stall and showed keen
" interest in the various items
-on display. Visitors to the
Fair also. took special
interest in the PFI stall and
over 500 of them recorded
their comments in the
visitor's book. Among the
distinguished visitors was
Mr B B Ramaiah,
Commerce Minister.
The centre piece of the items on
display was the electronic Population
Clock. The computer programme was
developed by PFI to display the
population of India, as also in its 14
major States, along with some relevant
demographic details. The Clock
projected the estimated current
population of the country as a whole
constantly updating it while on display
for 15 seconds before it switched on to
the most recent demographic data such
as birth, death, infant mortality rates
and the number of births, deaths and
infant deaths in a year. The Clock then
presented the same set of information
pertaining to the 14 States one after the
other before reverting to the updated
figures for the country. The Statewise
Population Clock was a major attraction
for the visitors who put several queries,
some even wanting to know the
population statistics of their own
districts.
Other items on
display included a map of
India indicating all PFI
funded projects since 1972-
73.The different categories
of project such as Action
Research
Projects
separately in urban, rural
or industrial areas,
Research Studies, IEC
projects etc were indicated
through coloured lights.
The role of PFI was
exhibited through three
posters prominently
displayed in the stall.
Nearly 15,000 copies
of educational and
informative material on
population
and
reproductive
health
produced by the Ministry
ofHealth & Family Welfare
were distributed through
the PFI stall during the
Fair. Selected video films
on these themes were also
shown on a large screen to
propagate the messages to
the visitors.
During the Fair, a Seminar on
Reproductive Health and Child Care
was organised on April 18. It was
chaired by Mr K S Sugathan, Secretary,
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
PFI Executive Diredor, Dr K Srinivas.1n
was one of the panel members.
II
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70
60
the figures of 2001 census can become
the basis for reallocation of number of
50
seats to Parliament. If this is done UP is
expected to gain 8 seats, Rajasthan 4 :1e5 40
s'eats, Madhya Pradesh 3 seats and 0c.
Haryana 1 seat. On the other hand, the a0: 30
o 0-14
o 15-59
o 60+
States that have been relatively successful
in family planning programmes will lose
20
their representation in Parliament; Tamil
10
Nadu by 6 seats, Kerala by 4 seats,
Andhra Pradesh by 1 seat, and Manipur
by 1 seat. By the year2016, the States of
0
India
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya
States
Pradesh and Bihar will gain by 14, 5, 4
"::-and 2 seats respectively and the States of years or until the growth differentials
Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh
and Kamataka will lose by 8, 4, 3 and 1
seats respectively, compared to the 1991
levels.
In the current context of a still
widening growth differentials among
the States as revealed by the 1991census
and the recent projections by the
Technical Group of the Planning
Commission, there is an urgent need for
the continuation of the 1977 freeze on
the representation to Parliament from
different States for atleast another 20
narrow down whereby' replacement
levels of fertility is realized in every
large state.
This is a necessary political
expediency not only to encourage
accelerated demographic transition in
the large Northern States but also to
preserve the national integrity and not
penalize the States that have successfully
implemented the national population
policies and achieved lower levels of
population growth rates as stipulated in
the various developmental plans.
Due to demographic forces, which
are the beyond the influence of any
public policy, the age distribution of the
nation's population in the coming years
will change in the direction of
contributing to higher fertility 'by
increasing the number of women in
reproductive ages. (15-49), increase the
proportion of population in the
productive ages (15-59)and in the older
ages ( 60+). All the States will experience
these phenomena in varying degrees.
With regard to population of children
(0-14 ages), while some States that have (.
-
r-
-
•....
,-
experienced substantial declines in
fertility in the past would record a
decline in the number and proportion of
children some others would be
experiencing a continued increase in
:1e5 40
oc.
e
~ 11. 30
•....
,....
~
-
o 0-14
o 15-59
o 60+
-
'-
- '-
n ll ll
this age group.
The female population in
reproductive ages in the country as a
whole will
Women (15-49) increase from
221.6 million in
1996 to 333.7 million in 2016. In
numerical terms about 5.6 million
females per year is expected to be added
to this age group. Among the four
Contd. all page 10
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· Project.:
Ghaziabad Project
Gaining -Momentum
he Intensive Reproductive
Health and Family Welfare
Programme launched in
Ghaziabad District jointly by the
Population Foundation of India and the
FICCI Socio-EG:onomic Development
Foundation is making steady progress.
group' of students performing street
pla}l,Sh, as been engaged to visit different
villages. They gave their first
performance during the Health Mela
held as part of the project in January this
year and which evoked spontaneous
response from the local community.
The group has since been visiting the
villages in Rajapur and Bisrakh Blocks.
There has been good response from
other institutions. The Appolo Hospital
offered institutional support for Doctors'
TrainingProgramme, A two-day Doctors'
Refresher Training Programme was
organised for Medical Officers ofBisrakh
and Rajaptir Blocks in March, which was
attendedbyall the 14GovernmentDoctors
posted in the two Blocks.
Ghaziabad District has a population
~ J of 2.7 million as per in 1991 census.
Inspite of its close proximity to Delhi
and a high level of urbanisation and
industrialisation, the District is quite
backward in terms of Infant Mortality,
Fertility, C0!1traceptiv~ use and Female
Literacy. The conditions of the rural
population in Ghaziabad in the social
and health fronts seem to be closer to
the rural population of UP than to the
population of Delhi. The Government
run programmes on reproductive health
seem to have only limited impact in this
District.
The Intensive Programme to be in
operation over a five year period aims
, to bring abo~t a tra~sformation to
achieve the national goal of 'Health for
-All' in Ghaziabaaoy-the target year of
2000 AD. It seeks to build up local
leadership, impart training to health
workers and improve the quality of
services in the District. To create wide
public awareness, Jan Shakti Vahini, a
Corrigendum : In the previous January-
March issue, there was an item based on a news
paper report which erroneously said that 15lakh
girl infants are killed in Bihar every year. In fact,
there are around 90,000 female infant deaths in
Bihar in a year according to the Office of the
Registrar General. Even if 1/6th of thesp
constitute foeticides, the figure would be around
15,000 only. FOCUS regrets Its Inadvertence in
publishing the item.
Two New Projects
For Women Slum Dwellers
PI Governing Board has given
approval to two new projects
mainly aimed at the welfare of
women in slum areas.
One~;of them aims at developing
a reproductive health package for
women with the use of non-terminal
contraceptives as a major component
for spacing between births. It will also
study. the factors which promote
adoption of family planning and also
those acting as barriers to it. This will
be carried out among married women
in industrial, rural and urban slum
areas in Dharampur Block of Solan
District in Himachal Pradesh jointly
with Nischal Foundation established
under the Anand Welfare Cenue in
DeIhl. The institution is engaged in
community development work affi{)ng
the weaker sections, particularly
women, youth and children. The
project will be in operation for three
years.
The second project will be taken
up simultaneously in .selected rural
areaS ~f Balipatna Block of Khurda
District md urban slums in Cuttack,
Orissa. The overall objective of the
project is to initiate processes for
population stabilisation by promoting
reproductive health services, income
generating activities and' the
participatory processes for education
and mobilisation of women. The main
focus of the programme would be
on regulating fertility, promoting
family planning acceptance and
encouraging the use of modem health
care facilities.
The project will be carried out
jointly with the National Institute of
Applied Human Research and
Development (NIAHRD) in Cuttack
for a duration of three years. It has
been taken up in Orissa as the State is
relativelibackward in terms of health
and nutrition status of the people. The
problem is more acute in the rural and
tribal areas and in urban slums where
people do not have direct access to the
sources of scientific' information on
modem' health care. The outreach of
~alth and medical services is also
generally poor due to imldequ"te "nd
untrained manpower.
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':It;or .PJ.. ;vln..~ l11'w-L..L'vi \\......
.1 L P'7'!Z"'"
schooling of children. However the cent, where as it will grow only about 29
problem seems to be completely per cent in Kerala and Tamil Nad u.These
different in case of Kerala
four larger Sta tes
States of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. The
OLD AGE
require generation of
Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the child population in these
POPULATION
more employment
increment is maximum for U.P. followed States will decrease by 21
WILL INCREASE
opportunities in the
by Rajasthan. As a consequence, added and 25 per' cent
efforts on reproductive health and child respectively in the next
FROM 62.3 M TO
112.9 M
coming years. In other
words the demand for
health care efforts would have to be
geared up in these four States for
controlling fertility. The female
population in this age group in the
States of Tamil Nadu and Kerala also
will increase by about 20 per cent from
the 1996 level.
An estimate of the future
population in ages 0 to 14 is essential
_fo_r planning of the resources to be
allocated for child health care, primary
and middle school education. Planning
for the
training
of num-
ber of medical and paramedical
workers and school teachers and
schools needed will be dependent on
such projections. In India as a whole the
population in the age group 0-14 is
likely to decline from 352.8 million to
350.4 million between 1996 and 2016.
While the child population at national
level is likely to declme, in the four
northern States of Bihar, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh
20 years. This trend may
have a big impact in the quality of child
care services and education. It is also
possible that some people who are
employed in primary schools may lose
their jobs because of closure of some
schools for want of children. However
the population in the working ages in
these States would continue to increase
in the cOrPing years.
The age group 15-59 is considered
to be the economically productive ages.
A study of the number and proportion of
population in the age group 15-59 is
essential for the planning ofprogrammes
of secondary and higher education and
employment. Economic development of
the country is largely dependent on the
quality of human resource in this age
group and the productivity of their
economic activity. Also the popUlation
in the age groups 0 to 14 and 60+ are
largely dependent on this age group.
The popu-
lation in this
age group is
jobs will be more in case
of these four States. Also because of the
changing age structure, the employment
opportunities may decline insome sectors
in the southern States.
Throughout the world the number
and proportion of the aged population
(age 60+) is increasing because of the
combined effects of increasing
longevity and declining fertility. The
aged are increasingly becoming a more
visible and influential
Old Age section of the society, in
terms of their political
leverage, social activism and economic
and health demands. Though
population aging is already a major
problem for most of the developed
countries in the world, it is rapidly
emerging as a major social and
economic issue in developing countries
as well. Although mortality and
migration can have an impact on the
process of population aging, the
principal determinant of aging up to
the present has been fertility behavior.
it will increase by 32.3 million. UP. likely to increase from 519.1 million in
The population aged 60 and above
-alone would contribute an increase of 19% to 800.1 million in 2016 indicating is generally used as an indicator of the
about 23.8 million. The population in an increase of about 14.05 million jobs aging of the population. It is important
this age group in the year 2016 will be per year. In India there will be more to note that the' population in this age
37 per cent more than that in the year supply of work force in the coming . group will increase very rapidly in the
1996. However, the
years than employment next twenty years. In India as a whole,
increment is about 7 per
WORKING AGE
opportunities and this the number of old age population will
cent in case of Bihar and
POPULATION Will
requires ca~efulplanning increase from 62.3 million to 112.9
Rajasthan and 15 per
GROW TO 800M IN
for generating atleast 7 million. In other words about 2.5 million
cent in Madhya
2016 DEMANDING
million new jobs a year. people will be added every year to this
Pradesh. Thus, the
14M ADDITIONAL
The population in the category. Thus old age security will be
problem of controlling
JOBS EVERY YEAR
working ages in Bihar, an emerging issue in the corning decades.
fertility seems to be
FROM NOW
Madhya
Pradesh, The old age population in Bihar, Madhya
urgent in these four
Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh
States, especially in UP. Hence these Pradesh win continue to grow faster than will increase from 5.7 to 9.4 million, 4.9
four States may require additional in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In the four to 7.7 million, 3.1 to 5.4 million and 10.6
resources in the areas of family northern States the population in this to 16.3 million respectively.
•
planning and child care services and age group will grow by about 65 per
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Monitoring System
For Target-Free Programme
nn _\\.f.1 0.1li.lL"-. ~ > cu•r•
hysical target setting to
measure achievements in
promoting contraception has
become a thing of the past with the
current approach to family pl~nning
seen as people's right to reproductive
health.
Yet, any such programme with
/ deployment of huge resources to
derive social benefits needs periodical
review and assessment. both for
keeping the programme on the right
course and to ensure accountability. In
the case of health and family planning
there is, therefore, a search for
alternative indicators for monitoring
performance.
The Ministry of Family Welfare
has initiated discussion on the subject
with institutions and' experts who are
actively associated with the population
issue. Two meetings held so far for the
purpose have listed a few core
indicators which are rele~ant for
assessment of performance in this
sector. These' are : Infant Mortality
Rate; Maternal Mortality, Delivery by
Trained A ttendan t/lns ti tu tional
Delivery, lmmunisation, Registration
of Pregnant Women including three
qualitative visits by ANC, Birth Order
and the use of contraceptives. Periodic
samples should be constructed to
quickly assess the performance of
various programmes.
monitored using the outcome
indicators instead of physical targets
and the performance judged in relation
to expected level of achievements.
The meetings were attended "by
Mr K S Natarajan on behalf of PFI.
Other participants were Prof. Pravin
Bisaria, Director, Institute of Economic
Narendra Mohan Hospital run by
Mohan Meakin Ltd. has agreed to
provide institutional support for Dais
Training Programme in Rajapur Block.
The training is expected to commence
from June.
A Mobile Health Clinic has started
functioning in Rajapur Block from May.
The vehicle and personnel for the clinic
have been provided by the Narendra
Mohan Hospital while the project fund
will take care of the supply of medicines.
Growth, Prof KB Pathak, Director,
IIPS, Dr Helen Simon, Director,
National Institute of Health and Family
Welfare, Dr Prema Ramachandran,
Adviser
(Health),
Planning
Commission, Dr M. Vijayanunni,
Registrar General and Dr S.S
Srivastava, Director General, Central
Statistical Organisation.
_
Initially, eight remote villages have been
selected for the service. The Mobile Team
visits one of the villages alternatively
every Sunday and Wednesday.
The FlCCl Socio~Economic
Research Centre has initiated a baseline
survey to find out the status of services
and service providing institutions in
Bisrakh and Rajapur Blocks. A training
programme for the field staff was
organised from May 5 to 10. The field
work has been completed and the data
are being processed on computers. A
report on the baseline survey is expected
in July.
-
It was decided that a sub-group
would go further into the issue and
would finally identify the indicators,
develop the schedules to be prescribed
and determine the sample design. The
progress of the programme would be
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FURTHER
DECLINE
IN
GLOBAL GROWTH RATE
The global population growth rate has
slowed below the record pace it reached
a decade ago .. The average growth
between 1990 and 1995 was 81 million
persons per'year, as against·a growth rate
of 87 million people per ye?r between
1985-1990.
.
But the 1996 Revision of World
Population Prospects, compiled by the
U.N. Population Division, points to
continuing large population increases in
absolute terms. In the U.N's medium
estimate, considered the "most likely"
scenario, world population is expected to
rise to 9.4 billion by the year 2050. The
high fertility estimate for 2050 world
population is 11.1 billion, while the low
projection estimates a total of 7.7 billion.
Of the mid-1996 total of 5.77 billion, nearly
4.6 billion-or 80 per cent of Earth's
inhabitants-live in less developed regions,
while 1.18 billion occupy more affluent
countries.
In 1995, the U.N. says, the world
population count was 29 million less than
expected under 1994 estimates-a change
of 0.5 per cent. The population of less
developed world regions numbered 34
million less than estimated, while
developed regions counted 5 million more
people than predicted.
The U.N.'s 1996 revision of world
population prospects surveys 228
countries and territories, ranging from tiny
Pitcairn Island with its 66 inhabitants to the
more than 1.2 billion people in China, the
world's most populous entity. Other
countries in the top five population ranking- 0
are : India, with 945 million people; the
-United States (269 million); Indonesia
(200 million), and Brazil (161 million). The
only other countries with populations
exceeding 100 million are : the Russian
Federation (148 million); Pakistan (140
. million); Japan (1_25Il]illion); Bangladesh
(120 million) and Nigeria (115 mUlion).But
within the next half-century,! the. U.N.
predicts that another seven countries will
cross the 1DO-million population mark.
These are: Ethiopia, Iran, Zaire, Mexico,
Philippines, Viet Nam and Egypt.
Elementary Education
To Be A Fundamental Right
he Government of India took
a major deCision on May 16 to
make elementary education to
children in the 6-14 age group a
fundamental right. The Constitution is,
proposed to be amended for the
purpose.
sending children to schools, especially
among people at the subsistence level.
The problem is compounded by the
high incidence of drop outs from the
school system for various reasons.
According to a Government
spokesman, the proposed statutory
amendment will also make it a
fundamental duty of every citizen, who
is a parent or guardian, to provide the
opportunity of education to children in
the 6-14 age group.
The decision has been hailed as a
major step towards social development.
It has brought a special cheer for all
workers on' the population front as
researches' over the years have
conclsively proved that education,
particularly for the girl child, goes a
long way. in determining attitudes
towards quality of life and the family
size.
There has been a substantial
expansion of educational facilities at the
school level since independence.
According to the 5th All India
Educational Survey, 95% of the rural
habitations now have a primary school
within one k.m and 85% an upper
primary school within a distance of 3
k.m. But the task of universal elementary
education has still a long way to go in
this country with various socio-
economic factors inhibiting the urge for
The Government seems to be
determined to tackle the problem
methodically. Education is a State subject
in India. A Conference of State Education
Ministers was held in August last year
to discuss the issue of elementary
education for all and later a committee
of State Education Ministers was
constituted to examine and consider the
legal, academic and financial
implications of the proposal. It was
recommended tJ.1atdetailed guidelines
should be formulated to provide a
broad frame work for follow-up
legislation on the subject by States and
Union Territories.
The Directive Principles of State
Policy of the Constitution already lays
down that every child up to the age of
14 years shall receive free. and
compulsory education. The current
decision will lend it a statutory force.
The common minimum programme of
the coalition Government had resolved
to m,akefree and compulsory
elementary education a fundamental
right. The Government had also
announced earlier that it would commit
6% of GDP for education as against the
present 3.7%.
Published by the POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA, 8-28, Qutab Institutional Area, New Delhi-110016. Tel. : 6867080, 6867081
Typesetted and Printed by Reproductions India, 198/19, Sapna Apts., Ramesh Market, East of Kailash, New Delhi-11 0065. Ph.: 6233269, 6216287
Editorial Direction & Guidance :- Dr. K. Srinivasan
Editorial Consultant: Asim Chatterji .