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Encounter with Population Crisis Lecture Series Five |
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1~..tJ.t t~.. "Titl.
.1.Wtl.ul';lti.J..t~ ..isis
FIVE'
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POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
New Delhi
(July 9, 1993)
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I~..c te.. "Titl.
18..I...I;.fi t~..isis
FIVE
Dr Abid Hussain
on
INDIA AT THE THRESHOLD OF THE 21ST
CENTURY: A LOOK FORWARD
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POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
New Delhi
(July 9, 1993)
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I
Continuingits annuallectureseriesunderthe generaltheme,
"EncounteWr ithPopulatioCnrisis,"theFoundatioinshappytopresent
the transcripot f the lecturedeliveredb.y Dr AbidHussain,Padma
Bhushan,Vice Chairpersonof the Rajiv Gandhi Institute for
ContemporarSytudiesN, ewDelhi.
Dr Hussainserved as a memberof the IndianAdministrative
service(IAS),inanumberoifmportanptositionsinAndhraPradeshand
the Governmenot f India,retiringfrom publicserviceas India's
Ambassadotor theUnitedStateof America.
Standingalmoston the last rungof the 20th centuryladder,
Dr AbidHussaincastsa lookforwardtospelloutthesituationthatIndia
willfaceinthe21stcenturyU. ndoubtedloy,neofthemajorchallenges
facingIndiaandotherdevelopingcountriesis the needto achieve
populationstabilisationwithinthe largerframeworkof sustainable
development.
DrHussainspokeatHoteTl ajPalacebeforetheCapital'saugust
audienceonJuly9,ontheoccasionof WorldPopulationDay1993.
Dr BharatRam,who deliveredthe inauguraal ddress,is the
Founder-membaenrdViceChairmanof theFoundationA.neminent
industrialisht,eisChairmaEnmeritusO, CMLimiteda, ndthefirstAsian
to haveheldthepostof thePresidenotftheInternationaClhambeorf
Commerce.
HARISH KHANNA
Executive Director
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':Mudi greater attention needs to 6e given to eaU€Q.tion, particufarCy
of girCs, in states such as UP, 'Biliar, :MP'
WOMEN'S EDUCATION VITALFOR
POPULATION CONTROL:Dr BHARAT RAM
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Of" / e have gathered here to listen to a lecture by Dr Abid
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Hussain, on "India at the Threshold of the 21st
Century: A look FOlWard". Dr Hussain, as most of
you are aware of, has been associated with various types of
activities connected with development - economic and social. It
would take a long time to enumerate his achievements in
various fields in such a short time. I will merely sum up by saying
that he is a very versatile thinker, and he has made a mark
whenever he has worked.
World Population Day 1993 falls on 11th July this year. The
Family Planning Foundation, of which I happen to be the Vice
Chairman, has been organising lectures by eminent personalities
connected with the problem of population gro\\A..rthT.he problem
of most ofthe under-developed countries, including India, has
been the high growth rate of population. This has naturally
retarded the economic well-being of the people in this countries.
I am surer all of you would be aware of statistics on population
growth in India which, according to the latest assessment,would
probably be 1.4 billion by the year 2025. It is therefore, very
important for all of us, to ponder on how to solve this problem.
Unfortunately, during the last 45 years, the problem of
population growth did not get the attention that it required. In
my opinion, the two most important elef!lents in controlling
population growth are education and health care. It is evident
that wherever there are higher levels of education, for e.g.
Kerala and Tamil Nadu, population growth has been well
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controlled. Therefore, much greater attention would have to be
given to education, particularly of girls in states like Uttar
Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, etc. There is no doubt in my
mind, that with Dr Hussain's insights, his lecture will generate
new ideas and perceptions to effectively tackle this problem. It
is in order to sharpen our focus and concentrate attention on
areas of high priority, in order to be able to tackle problems
arising out of population explosion, that we have arranged this
lecture, which willbe followed by a question and answer session
and a discussion. With these few words, I have great pleasure
in inviting Dr Abid Hussain to deliver this lecture.
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'Certainly, tlUre is one sufiject on w/iidi I fed cowul tlown, anti io
1Wtfed strong e1Wug/ito iefenti our records. .9Lntitliat
. is - tlU question of population.
INDIA ATTHE THRESHOLD OFTHE 21 ST CENTURY
A LOOK FORWARD: Dr ABID HUSSAIN
~<Odi
""GlL. irst of all, I am beholden to your Foundation, for
l:::::!.7' having given me this opportunity, to be with you
here this day. Your annual lectures have already
become extremely popular and useful. I find that, a long line of
eminent personalities have been speaking to you on the
Foundation's annual day. They have presented their points of
view to you, they have brought to bear their experiences on the
issues of population and development. Going through some of
their speeches, I found that, there is very little that has been
unsaid or remains to be said on this particular subject. Hence I
find myself, rather, in a very difficult position to propound
anything new or worthwhile. It is my handicap also that, I do not
belong to the profession of those who have been working very
hard on this particular issue. And therefore, what I would speak
to you today, will not be anything new. But I willtry to minimise
the torture of listening to me, by trying to be as brief as possible
because, I think, that it is the only way to earn your good will.
Well friends, for some of you who are present here, you
known, that I belong to a particular school of thought in this
country, which firmly believes, that we have a great future
ahead, imd I am bullish, I would say on India. But certainly, there
is one subject on which I feel cowed down, and I do not feel
strong enough to defined our records. And that is the question
of population. I think some of us have been guilty of not giving
the same prominence to this subject, which itdeserved. Not that
there were no proponents of this particular thought or idea, that
population is a very important dimension of a country's growth
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problems. Not that there were no people, who were telling us
why we should give more importance to it.
But somehow, most of us were so carried away by the ideas
of sheer economic growth and Clevelopment, that we thought
that this is a problem of numbers, which could easily be solved.
But then, when I look in retrospect and think of the days which
were given to us to do something, I feel that it was one of the
ironies of life, that while we loved people, we wanted to be with
people, and be of some services to people, we forgot that, the
numbers in which people might emerge on the scene, might
undo quite a number of efforts to improve the lot of the people
themselves.
We belong to a civilisation, a culture which celebrates
marriages. We have a fascinating concept of weddings and
wedding ceremonies. We spend lots of money on sweets and
laddus when babies are born. Yet, atthe same time, we discover
what a horrifying figure the people become, when the numbers
become unmanageable and therefore, we felt that, perhaps, the
developmental side would remain gloomy and dark, unless and
until the population side is brightened up and looked into in a
very different manner, from where we have been looking at it.
In fact, when you look at the prospects of India, with 850
million people already in position, and we are marching towards
a mark called billion number of people on this earth, we find that,
perhaps we will not really be able to' take care of the welfare of
those great numbers.
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'5f.6out 200 years ago! i£urope witn€ssea a simifar situation-thae
was uneasituss! tlUre were convulsions! tlUre revolts to which
tlUy couU not attri6ute one single cause to e~fain it '.
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That is where we feel that, we are perhaps caught in a trap.
In the language of the economists, it is the Malthusian trap. That
is, the power of earth to grow, to produce what you call, the
needs of the people, willbe totally overtaken by the power of the
people to expand in numbers.
About 200 years ago, when the 18th century was coming to
an end, Europe witnessed a similar situation. Hundreds and
thousands of people where sleeping in absolute discomfort in
the lanes and bylanes of London, Paris and other places. There
was a wave of unrest all over. There were disturbing factors all
over, there was a tide, which was running so high, that people
did not know and could not understand as to what its meaning
was. But one thing was dear, that throughout Europe there was
uneasiness, there were convulsions, there were revolts to which
they could not attribute one single cause to explain it.
In France, of course, they found some sort of an answer in
the failure of its economy and the collapse of its finances. But
in the rest of Europe, they were becoming victims of swelling
numbers of people inthat, they~wouldnot understand as to what
was motivating these people to call and to question their status
quo, to shake the roots as one would say, the institutions of
Europe.
Then, there came a discerning man by name Malthus, and
he said that this is all happening, because the power of the
population has overtaken the power of the earth to produCCit!he
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needs of the people. He saw them coming into the streets of
London, he saw them sleeping on the naked earth, without any
support or without any cover. He saw/them as angry mobs. He
saw them as violent people. He scJ.wthem also leading the
country to civilwars. He attributed it to the growing and selling
numbers, that cannot be stopped by any institution. The earth
will not be able to produce enough to feed these people and
therefore there willbe revolts followed by famines, diseases and
finally, a darkness which will surround humanity for ever.
Very few people knew that Malthus at the particular point of
time, was also reacting against another philosopher-Godwin.
Godwin's thesis was that: "Yes I see the darkness all around, I
see the uneasiness wrapping up the lifeof Europe" .But, he said,
the ingenuity of man would conquer allthese things, the thinking
man would find an answer to problems. Reforms would be
brought in. Correctives would be provided, and new ways
would be found to enrich the earth and get most out of it, most
of which is still hidden from the naked eye.
This was his school of thought, of what you call human
perfectionism. They thought that the human mind would
overpower the imperfection of the earth and they will be able to
find an answer. But then, as history has shown, as days moved
into months, and months into years, all around, the people
found that both the predictions of the pessimists and the
optimists were wrong.
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'If Maftlius was wrong, if goawin was wrong, t~n what was it
that savea 'Europet~ sort of aisaster that
was preaktea 6y t~m?'
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Neither was there such a convulsion, which would have
destroyed the earth as Malthus had thought, nor, if I could use
the modem word, the technological revolution was of such an
order that it could provide answers to the problem. If Malthus
was wrong, if Godwin was wrong, then what was it that saved
Europe from the sort of disaster that was predicted by them?
In retrospect, they found that Europe was able to discover
three escape routes to meet this population problem. One was
immigration. By sheer force and pressure of human bodies, by
sheer increase in numbers, England could not contain the
population that was swelling into the streets of London and the
lanes and bylanes of its other towns. They started moving out.
Today we call them the boat men. They took to the boats
and they left for different parts of the world. They discovered
those parts of the world which were not occupied, and where
resources were still free. They went to America, they went to
Canada, they went to Australia, they went to Africa, and they
started pouring into other countries like India. That was the time
when neither green cards were being insisted on by the other
side, nor were visas to be issued from this side, from where the
people had to go.
So, the people travelled out. They went out of England and
Europe, and discovered for themselves a place where they could
again find a proper ratio between men and land, and could find
an answer to that gloomy question which was looming large.
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The one answer that they found to the particular problem of
population was, to reduce the numbers in such a way, that it
becomes controllable and manageable. But then, in spite of the
particular spreading out of the people into different parts of the
world, thereby reducing the pressure on the numbers on a
particular piece of land, the total answer was still not found. So,
again, the scientists or the scientifically oriented economists and
the historians, started pondering over the particular issue, as to
how Europe has solved the problem. If immigration was not the
total answer, what was the answer?
They found the answer was agricultural revolution.
Agricultural revolution brought in England, what you call,
consolidation of land, introduction of new crops like potato
sowing. But this again created a very strange situation. While the
supply of food increased, life expectation also went up. So
.instead of reducing th~ number of people, with the help of
agricultural revolution, however limited it may be, they found
that, when the food supply improved, the diet improved, and
the population also improved.
It was later that it was discovered that, during agricultural
revolution, the fertility of the people goes up and with good
food, the number of babies born increases, and yet atthe same
time, the uncertainty of agriculture is such that, our agriculture,
this particular agricultural revolution which was the second
escape route, as I would call, was not able to provide the full
answer either.
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'qfU fcutors joineti togetfur to provU£e an answer not onfy to
'Engfanti, 6ut to tfu wfwCe of 'Europe-immigration, agricufturaf
revo{ution anti intiustriaf revo{ution. '
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Then came with that, the Industrial Revolution, and here
was the key of the success of, what you call, the European
problem of population. While the population increased in the
earlv 19th century four-fold inEngland, the productivity increased
fourteen fold, and while people were going ,in ordinary boats
after the Industrial Revolution, they started going in steam boats
and conquering the other lands. They again had the technology
to help them in terms of the power of the gun which they had.
With Indusirial Revolution, production increased and productivity
went up. But it also had a very dark side of human wickedness
involved in it. These three factors joined together to provide an
answer, not only to England, but to the whole of Europe -
immigration, agricultural revolution and industrial revolution.
Now, today, when we face a similarsituation inthe developing
countries and in India, one starts wondering ifwe can also knock
at the doors -the doors which opened up for Europe and find
a way out of this difficult situation. The answer, sometimes, is
not as favourable as one would expect it to be. Immigration is
out.Given the world in which we are living today, it is not
possible for human beings to move in waves as it had happened
earlier. Yes, there are place~ on earth which can still take many
more men. Yet, the doors will not open up and yet you will find,
that the earth on which you are living in India, and China and
other countries, is already so over-crowded, that it is trying to
find a way out of it.
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But as I said, voluntary immigration can be limited to very
few people, and thattoo, the few who have the developing skills,
who have developed knowledge and then to, as a sort of loss
to the country from which they go. Earlier, people were moving
to a country which was backward, from a country which was
relatively forward. Today, you have to move from countries
which are backward, to countries which are relatively forward,
and therefore there again, that law which will make them flow
in the direction of a less competitive world, is no longer possible
and therefore, one would say, that even if it implies over-
simplification, in the forseeable future, I do not see immigration
to be the answer.
Then comes the next question about the green revolution
and the industrial revolution. You can see as to what had
happened in Europe at the time. They had one great advantage,
in that, there was a geographical overlapping between the
problem ofpopulation and the source from which the technologies
were flowing. Today, when you look at it, you find that, whether
it is in Africa or in Asia or in Latin America, the problems of
population, and the problems of finding an answer to them are
differently located. There is a disjunction, between the places
where you have the technology, and the places where you have
the problem of population.
In England, when they faced this particular problem, they
had the laboratories working out the answers also. In England,
when it swelled with people in the streets, there were people
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"13yarnf farge, I wouU say tfuLt, we are not tlie treasure MUSes
of tedinofogies nor tlie centres of science, wliidr. wuU
wntro{ tlie population pro6fem. '
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again in the world of science finding an answer to the problem
of hygiene and to the problem of controlling diseases.
Unfortunately, we cannot say the same is the situation in our
country. Maybe India and China are ahead than some of the
developing countries in this particular regard.
But by and large, I would say, that we are not the treasure
houses of technologies nor the centres of science, which could
control this partkular problem by giving a boost to agriculture
and industry, to the extent that it can meet the problem of the
millions of mouths to be fed here. So, therefore, there comes a
point for us to realise as to how do we handle this question. Do
we handle it only demographically, by reducing numbers,
through the route of medicine, because as I said the numbers
cannot be reduced by sending them abroad? Perhaps the
numbers can be controlled through, what you call, the type of
programmes that some of your are handling. That's the
programme of family planning, family control by providing
contraceptives, and trying to see that births are controlled. But
as I said, the numbers are so large, that for quite sometime to
come, you will not be able to resolve that particular issue.
Even in England and in other places, let me tell you very
frankly, that even when these three routes were found, two or
three generations had to suffer the backlog of the problem. The
industrial revolution did come in England first, but if anybody
had the notion that they were able to have an equitable society
established, or that bread was equally distributed to everybody,
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orthatthe poverty line disappeared totally, they were dreaming
of a situation which never existed. Life continued to be a
nightm~re for most of the people over there. They suffered for
generations, and it is only later, that they were able to reach a
certain position, where there was a sort of harmony, which was
established between the numbers and the production.
In a situation like that of India, China and Africa, it is going
to take a much longer time to find an answer. But we have to
adopt a route, whereby we have got to control the population.
This is a challenge for the 21st century, if not for the 19th, and
that is where, we have to strengthen the sinews of this particular
programme, and see as to how we can control the problem.
The second, ahd I come back to technology again, and I
would say that we will have to find an answer to grow more than
what we are growing today. The earth has to yield much more
than what it is giving us. The power of the population has got
to be met by tapping the power inside the earth, with the inputs
of science and technology, by being able to grow more.
So, therefore, it becomes very clear that this particular
problem, cannot be just a problem of demography, but has got
something to do with economics also. So, therefore, you have
got to combine the two. It has to stand on the two feet of, what
you call, economy and, let's say, the medical approach to the
problem. Because, I repeat again, the population problem is not
a single problem, it is many problems combined in one, and
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'tJ3ut tO11W1TOWS tedinofogit.5, if tlUy are rut/ikss, tlUn tlUy would
6e iestroying and making our fives redundant over lUre.'
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therefore, you cannot yield an answer to it by following one
course. It has got to be different courses also, and secondly, that
it cannot remain only a domestic problem, but it has to become
a global issue which has got to be solved globally.
A minute ago, I was telling you, that we need technologies
and yet, these technologies are not present in our country alone.
We have got to tap technologies from outside. We cannot have
a restricted, insulated, isolated protectionist view of life at all.
You have to have a global view so that, you will be able to
enrich yourself with the experiences of outside and much more
than that, with the technologies that are available outside, to be
brought into this country and the rich countries willalso have to
realise very soon, that the population problem of the developing
countries, or the population problem of the over-populated
countries, is not going to create problems only for those
countries, but has got, what you call, an aspect of it, which is
going to touch the lives of the people living in less populated
countries, rather, the more developed countries.
The problem is this, that if they do not consider the
technologies, in what you call global terms, it willcreate further
harm to the developing world. And that is why I am interested
in the way in which the technologies are developing elsewhere
to develop substitutes, which are coming up for our raw
materials and tropical goods, then destroy whatever little base
we have of export and foreign exchange earning in this country
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I think, those who are thinking in terms of agricultural
reforms and agricultural technologies, those who are thinking in
terms of using biological engineering and genetics in order to
increase the food production elsewhere,should not do it at the
expense of the food drive and the possibilities of the food
production in these over-populated countries because, this will
enunicate a new age in which each will destroy the other.
Yes, about 200 years ago, the industrial developments of
England destroyed our small textile units of this particular
country. But tomorrow's technologies if they are ruthless in this
particular aspect, then they would be destroying and making our
lives redundant over here. They will be undermining the
economics of this particular part of the world. But then, one
might say, why should they bother as to what should happen in
other parts of the country. I agree with it. That's the human
reaction. But once you understand the world is becoming too
small to hold on to the problems in a geographi~l area, and not
pass them on to others, then I would like that idea. But today,
the problems of poverty in the form of diseases, the problems
of poverty is in the forin of diseases, the problems of poverty is
in the form of, let's say, environment and over-stretching
geographical limits.
Today, when we talk in an another con~ext about the
sovereignities coming to an end, and the borders disappearing
and the world becoming a borderless world, it's also true of
these particular issues . Today, AIDS which is a disease rampant
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'~mferstana tlU conte;r.t ana tlU compfelliti£s of tlU mw worM
orier, ana you wi£[ 'iseaver, t/iat you /iave to /iave not only a
. aomestic approach, 6ut a 9fo601 approach to these pro6fems.
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in Africa, is not confined only to Africa. It is moving from one
place to the other without one's knowledge ofit. And ithas come
in a big way in Africa, because the immunity has died. And,
people rich or poor, eating three meals, or missing two meals,
or not having any meal, they are all becoming targets of
diseases.
It is a pity the way in which the jungles are being destroyed.
I am just coming from Ethiopia and what a sad, sad story it is
to see and watch and hear and listen to the tales there. You mean
to say, that ifAfrican forests or the Asian forests and others are
burnt out, it's not going to have any effect on the rest of the
world? That is something the scientists, the technocrats the
thinking minds in Europe and America don't believe in. They are
seeing the inter-meshing of the things today, and they realise
that this particular technological approach, which we have
created in the world today, which has a meaning and significance
for a geographical area, has got its effect spread out, which will
envelope the whole world. And therefore, from that particular
angle also, when you think of technologies you have got to think
.globally.
I am making this particular point to emphasise one thing -
that sometimes we believe that we can solve our problems
ourselves. Who denies that we must be confident of ourselves,
who denies that self-reliance isnota good thing? Understand the
context and the complexities of the new world order, and you
will discover, that you have to have not only a domestic
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approach to some of these problems but a global approach. We
have to be in the committies of the nations making this particular
point clear because, there are people on the other side who have
also realised now, asto how important it isto solve this particular
problem of technology, in a way which will solve problems
locally and globally.
Yet one more thing which I would like to place before you,
is that, if you would like the sort of an apprbach in which
economics and the medicine have got to combine together, if
you have to think of an approach, in which the domestic and
global issueshave got to be meshed together, and if you believe
that what happens in the remotest part of this earth can catch up
with us, then you will realise that it is extremely important for us
to create a new consciousness and awareness. Unless and until
a new mind is created, unless and until a new mind set is
generated, we'll neither be able to solve the population
problem, nor the economic problem, nor the technological
problem. In almost all avenues of life, there has got to be this
impact of new mind set to be made. What are we doing about
it?
This is where I come to the culture of the mind, to the way
in which we are educating our boys and girls in the schools and
colleges. The way in which awareness and consciousness is
being created and generated, you find that, some of the
problems lay hidden over there. The poison which is being
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'In alt1WSt a£[avenues of fife, tliere Iiosgot to 6e tliis imp~t of a
new mid set to 6e made. '
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spread through prejudicies, the poison which is being circulated
in our veins in the name of history and culture, they are coming
in the way of our understanding of the situations. They are
coming in the way of our accepting the new prescriptions, and
therefore, those of us who are interested in resolving this
particular issue, willhave also to take greater and deeper interest
in the problem of educating our youth, in the problem of
educating ourselves. The talk of fundamentalism, the talk of
conservatism, the talk of going back to the roots, the talk of
getting a sort of a glorification in the past is a sure prescription,
believe me for the failure and the demise of anything sensible
that can be done to solve a problem.
I remember Naipaul's book 'India: A Wounded Civilisation'.
He said a brilliant thing over there, which we did not like, I did
not like at the time when I read it, but in retrospect, I find it to
be very sensible. He said, that, the danger in India, is that its past
is so fascinating, that it might eat up its present. We have got to
take a very comprehensive view of this particular matter. When
I am talking to you on population control, I said nothing very
new to you, nothing about now to control how to organise, what
- you call, our family planning institutions and others one,
because, as I said, others have already spoken about this; two,
because, you are more knowledgeable than I am on this
particular issue. But I thought I will try to bring the cravings of
some of us in this particular house and outside, who believe that
these are not isolated problems at all. These are the problems
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which are linked with each other. And these are, the problems
which can only be solved, if we take a global view of things.
Globalisation has come not only in one or one and a half sectors
of life. It has to come in almost everything, whether you are
discussing family planning, or education or security, or foreign
policy. Unless and until we draw the other centre of knowledge
into our work, unless and until we become part of the wider
world, unless and until we understand that the new escape
routes which we based on the old ideas will not serve our
purpose, we willbe suffocating and dying on this over crowded
earth.
But, I am confident and sure that institutions like yours and
people like you, would take a wider view and a broader view
and a more sensible view of these particular things, and work out
a programme, in which as I said, economics and demography,
in which technOlogy and the problems of culture, in which the
problems of a country and the problems of the world, could be
joined together and thought about simultaneously. Then alone
we'll solve the problem. Well friends, I have taken much of your
time, and I thank you very much for giving me such patient
hearing. Thank you!
.
.
.
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3.2 Page 22 |
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Copyright 1993POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
(Formerly Family Planning Foundation)
First Published in 1993
First Reprint in 1995
Published by:
K Balakrishnan
Secretary and Treasurer,
PDpulation Foundation of India,
- B-28, Qutab Institutional Area, New Delhi 110016
Composed and Re-printed by;
SILVER BYTES
G-50,Green Park
New Delhi - 110 016
Editing and Production:
Sandhya Dhingra
Transcribed by:
Sujatha Ramesh