and prospects of urbanisation and
migration in India.
Prof Bose considered that
migration is going to be the most
important issue of demography not
only in India but all over the world in
the coming years.
In India, rnlgration of people from
mral to urban areas has been choking
the urban infrastmcture and almost all
urban centres in the country have corne
to a break-down point. Presenting a
series of statistical charts, Prof Bose
said that urbanisation is being
sustained not so much by migration as
natural increase in population, which
accounts for 60 per cent of the growth
of population in urban areas.
Outlining the strategy suggested
by him, Prof Bose said that there has
to be a definite plan of action for all
million plus cities as also for those
which are potentially in the million
plus category. Separate plans should
be drawn for strategic cities, important
industrial centres, .steel towns,
university towns, tourist or cultural
centres. The plan of action in each case
should be to make the cities liveable
by providing the basic infrastnIcture
and to save them from total
disintegration. This will also prevent
the~ed to migrate to the cities.
Prof P N Mari Bhat, Director,
Population Research Centre, Dharwad,
Kama taka, made an analysis of the
geographical pattern at fertility and its
implications for the future.
Prof Bhat said that his main
enquiry was into the great variations
in the levels of fertility in different
parts of the country. For his study, he
looked for new indicators, based on
district level data and on the basis of
his finds, he established eight zones in
the country corresponding to
distinguishable ranges in fertility,
pattern. These zones are not restricted
to States, but are spread over
contiguous areas of different States.
On the implications of the study
for the future, Prof Bhat said that if the
current estimated speed of fertility
decline is maintained, then India could
hope to reach the replacement level
only around 2020 AD. But it is likely
that replacement level may be
achieved earlier as the pace of decline
is expected to be faster in the coming
years with a snowballing effect.
Prof K B Pathak, Director,
International Institute for Population
Sciences, Bombay, dealt with the policy
implications of fertility and mortality
transition observed from National
Family Health Survey (NFHS) findings.
He said analysis of data shows
that different States in India are
indifferent stages of fertility transition.
It is also interesting to note that fertility
transition in different States began at
different levels of key determining
factors such as child survival and
female literacy. It is also noticed that
transition has been rapid in many
States in the first 10 years and then
slowed down, indicating that an
already existing demand in the first
phase having been satisfied, greater
efforts are needed to educate and
motivate the remaining hard core of
the population.
Prof Pathak underlined that
female literacy combined with paid job
opportunities for women should be our
first priority in policy formulations.
The policy is to be flexible so that it
takes care of local needs and
aspirations and utilises the local
infrastructure. In addition to female
literacy, reproductive health services
are also most essential for the survival
of the children and prevention of neo-
natal mortality. He said, it would be a
good strategy to select districts for
special intensive programmes on the
basis of objective necessity, to make
the best use of available time and
resources.
POLICY AND PLANS: Second Plenary Session
I he second plenary session,
chaired by Dr. V. A. Pai
- _Eanandiker,
_ Member,
Governing Board, PFI, was devoted to
policy and plans. The session fittingly
began with a scintillating Ctiscourse by
Dr. M. S. Swaminathan, eminent
agricultural scientist and Chairman,
Committee on National Population
Policy. He spoke on "Population
Programmes in the context of
Democractic Decentralisation
Allocation of Responsbilities and
Resources to Local Administrative
Bodies such as Nagarpalikas and
Panchayats."
According to him, in order to make
family p1annin3 a social movement the
main thrust should be on
::l~centTalil<l.tion in which the
rejuvenated Panchayati Raj stnIcture
can be given the responSibility of
implementing
the population
programme.
Dr SwarniPathan said, the expert
group on population policy has
suggested the preparation of socio-
demographic charters as the planning
tool for use at the grass-root level for
achieVing a transition to low birth and
death rates. The charters can be used at
the village, town or city levels like the
five-year plans at the central and state
levels. He said these charters are to be
developed with the twin goals of
population stabilisation and meeting
the unrnet minimum needs of the local
population on the one hand and
achieving harmony with nature by the
conservation and sustainable us!? of
natural resources, particularly land,
water and common property resources,
on the other.
~He said the resource question
should not stand in the way of
democratic decentralization as the gains
of such a system will more than
compensate the money to be otherwise
spent to bring' about the transition.
Mr T.V. Antony, former Chief
Secretary of Tamil Nadu, who is well
known for his drive and successes in
the field of family paInning, analysed
the programmes and policies adopted
in Tamil Nadu, which have yielded
spectacularresults in lowering the birth
rate in the State.
In Mr Antony's opinion, the
success in Tamil Nadu owes much to a
social reform movement pioneered and
established by a great leader "Periyar"
Ramaswamy, whose influence was
strongly felt all over Tamil Nadu