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Encounter with Population Crisis Lecture Series Six |
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I~..c te.. "Titl.
1-..I...I;lti t~..isis
SIX
POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
NEW DELHI
(July, 1994)
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1~..tC t~.. ."Titl.
1-..I...I;.ti t~..isis.
SIX
Mr Vasant Sathe
on
THE RACE BETWEEN
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
NEW DELHI
(July, 1994)
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r;;estabylieshaer,dabroyutnhdethlaetWe oBrhldaPraotpRualatntiao,nJDRaDy,TthaetaF,ohuansdabteioenn,
organisinga lectureby an eminentspeakerto shareviewsand
expandthedebateonthe impactof PopulationonDevelopment.
Continuingits annual lecture seriesunder the general theme,
"EncounterWith PopulationCrisis", the Foundationis happyto
present the transcript of the lecture delivered by Mr Vasant
Sathe,Presidentof the IndianCouncilfor Cultural Relations.
Mr Sathe is one of India's senior leaders endowedwith an
incisivemind.Withhis powerof originalthinking,Mr Sathehas,
for longyears,beenaddressinghimselfto thenationalproblems
and comingup with innovativesolutions. The offices that Mr
Satheheldasa MinisterintheCentralCabinet,beit the Ministry
of Information and Broadcastingor that of Chemicals and
Fertilizersor Steel,MinesandCoalsoreventheEnergyMinistry,
bear the imprintof this raretrait of his personality.
He has been associatedwith the United Nations in various
capacities- as SeniorAdviserto the Indian Delegationto the
25thSessionof theUNGeneralAssembly;India'srepresentative
in the HumanRightsCommitteeof the UN; leaderof the-Indian
Delegationto the GeneralConferenceof UNESCOat Belgrade,
and as participantin the World PeaceCongressin Moscow.
Theto~ic,whichourlearnedspeaker,MrVasantSathe,explored
was The RaceBetweenPopulation and Development.
Dr Bharat Ram, who made the opening remarks, is the
Founder Member and Chairman of the Foundation. An
eminent industrialist, he is Chairman Emeritus, DCM Ltd.,
and the first Asian to have held the post of the President
of the International Chamber of Commerce, Paris.
Executive Director
I HAmSH KHANNA
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'fJJU1991 census fiad liigli{iglited some improvements in tlie overaf{
situation, 6ut one could not miss tlie f(Ut that Imfian popu!ation
Iia4 continued to grow at tlie rate of 2.1 % per annum. '
BALANCEBETWEENRESOURCESANDCONSUMPTION
CRUCIALFORSOCIALSTABIUTY: Dr BHARATRAM
_rV7
CdX't
week ago, India, like the rest of the world,
observed the World Population Day on 11th
July, 1994. There is a great deal of concern at
the slow progress in the basic task of reducing fertility,
which alone could have lowered the rate of population
growth. The 1991 Census had highlighted some
improvements in the overall situation, but one could not
miss the fact that Indian population had continued to grow
at the rate of 2.1 % per annum, adding as many as 18
million people to the size of our family. You will recall that
when the early results of the Census were announced,
India' had recorded a population of 846 million; it has
already touched 901 million. The year 2000 AD, which will
truly be a defining moment for the nation, will see a
population in excess of 1 billion!
These indeed are alarming figures, and should once
again compel us to think, and think hard, as to what needs
to be done to halt the galloping population growth, by
stronger measures and purposeful programmes aimed at
further reduction of fertility and, consequently, the size of
the average Indian family. Government is engaged in a
critical appraisal and, once a final view is taken on the
report of the Swaminathan Committee, one could hope to
see some departure and perhaps, stronger action to revamp
the family planning programme.
Population and development have a symbiotic
relationship, both affecting economic growth, which again
is reflected in the quality of life - the basic aim of any
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development plan. If population continues to grow beyond
natural resources or the economic infrastructure created in
the last five decades, there is bound ,to be noticeable
decline in the quality of life. The reasons are obvious:
national income produced by the economy as a whole has
perforce to be "distributed over a large number of people;
therefore, percapita income becomes lower.
In India, the national income has increased at the rate of
4% during the Plan period. But the per capital income has
increased only at the rate of 0.5%, mainly on account of
extremely rapid and large additions to the population since
the late seventies . You can easily imagine what the impact of
the additioI1 of 18 million people year after year would be,
unless of course, the country achieves some dramatic success
in the next 10 years or so. The growth rate must come down
to 1.9 and the birth rate 21. Not impossible, because Kerala',
Tamil Nadu and some others have achieved it.
Rapid population growth puts very heavy pressure on
natural resources like land, water, food, etc. Water will be the
most serious problem in the next century, generating grave
tensions and conflicts. Reference to a few serious scarcities
should enable us to sharply focus on the gravity of the crisis.
In spite of a substantial increase in agricultural
production since the late sixties, the per capita consumption
has not changed much, because the additional production
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- "lJU l1'J{JCE:F'R.fport on lrufia reveals a stunning f~t 63% of
cliiUren under five years of age are mafnourisliei - one
of tlie worst fevers in tlie wor{tf!'
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of cereals and other foods has been sufficient to meet the
needs of growing numbers. The level of nutrition continues
to be low. Availability of even a simple basic like pulses
which are the source of natural proteins for the millions,
has declined. SO,me people have observed that there is
room for further increases in food production on the basis
of existing practices, as also new advances in biotechnology.
, However, with our population increasing at 2.1 % per
annum, th~re seems little chance of levels of consumption
by the common people increasing or the quality of
nourishment improving in any significant fashion. Just the
other day, when the UNICEF report on India was released,
I came across the stunning fact that 63% of children under .
5 India, are malno~rished - one of the worst levels in the
world.
Another fact regarding per capita expenditure on health
and family welfare is. pertinent to the issue of human
welfare. Per capita expenditure on health and family
welfare is a bare Rs 20.
Take housing, for instance. In 1981,6 persons lived in
a dwelling unit compared to 5.6 in 1961. With increasing
urbanisation, resulting in slums, this kind of overcrowding
has been further increasing, adversely affecting the health
of the people living in such shelters. The percentage of
population which is totally without any kind of shelter has
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increased from 0.29 in 1961 to 0.34 in 1981. The shortage
was of the order of 31.4 million units in 1991. By 2001, it
wiH increase to 45.2 million units and 75.6 million units in
2011.
Governments may want to increase allocation of
housing and civic facilities, but that will remain far short of
the actual requirement, because from the same pool of
resources, large allocations shall have to be drawn for
generation of electricity, industrial development, expansion
of transportation networks, etc.
Since virtually uncontrolled population growth will
continue to demand increasing expenditures on social and
public facilities - a desirable objective - there will be
practically no addition to capital formation, which is
absolutely essential for steady economic growth. In India,
only 10% of the national income is saved and the net
ca pital formation in 1991 was only 11 %. The result is that
there has been very low investment in modern technology,
so critical today, when the Indian economy has to compete
with the world.
The country seems to have woken up at last, and I
would like to imagine that the concerns expressed by the
political leadership, industry, academia and the public in
general, will give a new thrust to our policy of economic
reforms and restructuring, with a view to generating more
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'sina virtuaf(y unwntro/ld population growth wi£{ continlU to
aemami increasing e;rpemiitures on social ami pu6{ic
facitities tliere wi£{ 6e practica{{y no
. add:ition to capita{formation.
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wealth to be shared with more and more people. The
Prime Minister Mr P V Narasimha Rao, speaking before a
mammoth gathering at the Red Fort on 14th July had
presented a very realistic picture, when he said that a fair
balance must be struck between resources and consumption
of social stability is to be guaranteed. He went on to say
that the burden must be shared by all. Obviously, while
economic growth accelerates the pace of development,
there must be concomitant declaration of population
.growth, if our national objectives have to be achieved. We
are, indeed, engaged in a race between population and
development which, can be won only by maintaining a
steady pace, and getting the best out of our resources.
I have great pleasure in welcoming Mr Vasant Sathe,
who is known for seriously articulating concerns about the
state of the economy and the nation. He has shown a very
keen awareness of the complex factors which fashion
social and economic change, and on a number of occasions,
has presented an Agenda for New India in which, I am
happy to say, population stablisation and harnessing of
resources for equitable distribution, have a high place. We
can look forward to a thought-provoking presentation and
a call for action.
Ladies and gentlemen, I welcome Mr Vasant Sathe and
request him to share with us his views on The Race
between Population and Development. Mr Vasant Sathe:
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THE RACE BETWEEN POPULATION AND
. DEVELOPMENT: MR VASANT SATHE
QT he first thought that comes to my mind while
I stand here, is the occasion last year or a year
before, whenJRD Tata had addressed, an
equally augustaudience, I think on World Population Day,
here in this very hall. We all know that he has been a
pioneering champion of the cause of Population planning.
Right from the early years of our Independence, I recall, he
had actually raised his voice,and said that th~re should be
an independent commission for Family Planning. That was
as"far back as in 1951. But, I must admit candidly, that the
politicians in this country, irrespective of the party they
belong to, including my own, although sometimes in the
earljer period, outwardly we did express concern about
family planning and welfare, are really not bothered about
this problem. We n~ver really took population control per
'seseriously.
.
On the contrary, the so~called progressives, and this is
what will be surprising to many, belonging to socialist
thought or communist thought, criticised population control
as a capitalist fad. In fact, they said that larger population
is an asset. I don't want to name, some prominent leaders
of this country, who have been saying what we should not
bother about population control.
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'/ must atlmit, cantlitf(y,. tMt poCitidans in tliis country, irrespective
of the party tliey oeCono to are reaf[y not ootlierul
.
. aoouttliepopulationpro6km.'
And I remember the theory as far back as in 1954, as a
student of economics, particularly while reading and
studying Marxists, that, the poorer the. people, the larger
the population growth. And then Nature alone tries to
r~store the balance by way of pestUence, famine, etc.
Richer the people, the lower the growt,hrate. And, therefore,
. one of the solutions in economic studies was, that if you
improved the standard of livingof the people, automatically,
the rate of growth of the family comes down. It was very
humorously put, that in the European and other Western
countries, when it is time to choose, between a car or a
baby, the young couple prefers a car. And, therefore, they
postpone the baby. And even if they have a baby, they
only have one whom they can bring up well.
So, the question of population planning is very closely
linked to development. I remember having sent a paper to
the Planning Commission, with a copy to Panditji in 1954,
when the 1955 Plan was to be prepared. In that paper, I
had suggested: devise incentives and disincentives and let
the .incentives be very attractive. And I remember, having
said, that to a family, particularly in the rural areas,
meaningful incentives could motivate to restrict family
size. Those days, you will remember that, the red triangle
was popular. The slogan was not "Hum Do, Hamare Do"
but a 'Tticone', which suggested three children. I said,
those who adhered to this norm should be given a monihly
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allowance to bring up these three children. I had said, Rs
50 for the third child may be substantial enough. But, if
there is a fourth child, the first hundred go~s'. And I had
'also said; that apart frorn cash, give something attractive,
like a transistor -in those days a transistor radio was a new
thing, and very attractive at that.
Or, another incentive that could have beenpffered WaS
by providing assistance in hO\\,lsing. I biid made a [.ough
tcalculationand fpund that, the cost of this package much
less, compared to the cost of one a<!dLtional membel',of the
.family, from birtbtill he grows up, t9 become a prodl,l(;tive
member, contributing to the gross domestic prodl,1ct of.o.ur
society. The: cost tbatsocietyhas to bear, whether on
account of the addition to the family or otherwise, is much
higher than wbat the State will sp~nd on planned incentives.
'>.
'!Butasyouknow,
econqmists, when they get into the
Plan,ning Commission, become different people. Then they
\\start thinking in terms of lowering the budgetary ceilings,~tc. M
>MrSathe's idea isaccepted, ifwe have to reach so manypeopJe,
poor pa..ople inthe country and that is the target,multipHed
by ~so much, and, therefore, no budget. The Fina,nce
Minister said, the idea is good, but, not pxactical. Rejected.
But just consider this. By the Census of 1QSl, we were
350 million, and if. I remember correctly, before the
partition, we were 3"6 crore (360 million). But; after the
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'tJTiecost tMt SOc.iety lias to 6ear{ w/Uther on ac.c.ount of the
atftfition to the family or otherwise, is mudi liig/Ur tlian
WMt the State wi£{ sped on pfannea incentives. '
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partition, when the East Bengal and Pakistan areas were
separated, the population of India in 1947 was hardly 26
crore. And today, just now as the Chairman was saying, we
are 900 million. Our population has more than doubled
partly due to our success in the matter of health care, which
is a good thing. Life expectancy has also doubled from 28
years in 1947; it is nearly 60 years now. So, more people
survive longer. However, the main cause of worry is that
the birth rate has remained more or less 30 per 1000. The
result is for everyone to see.
I tried to make an interesting demographic study. I am
still today not convinced. So, some of you experts in this
field, m~y please educate me. I asked the experts in the
Planning Commission, "We go on making projections of
the growth rate of the economy - 1%, 1.4% or 2%. We
know that population since Independence is so much.
How does this tardy growth gellwith a galloping population?
,Why not go back in history, at least know history, say, the
time of Ashoka and try to find out what the population of
India was? This process could go back to, probably, the
population aUhe time of, say, Mahabharata or at the time
of Buddha. I guessed the population might be just about
a crore, or a crore-and-a-half.
But I was amazed when I got the demographic figures.
I found that the population in the period of Mahabharata
was about 10 crore. I am not willing to accept it on the face
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of it. However, since the period of Buddha or Ashoka, the
population right up to the time of Aurangazeb had remained
more or less stable, round about 100 million or 111
million. Why? Mainly because Nature was taking its heavy
toll- famines, pestilence, endemic diseases on a large scale
and wars decimated men and women at a young age.
Population, somehow was being maintained. It is only
since 1921, when health and other things started improving,
that population started increasing too.
See the consequences of population growth now. Land
remains the same. It is not flexible, So, what do you do?
You start destroying forests, to bring more land under
cultivation. Although new methods have developed, thanks
to Dr Borlaug and others, for improving production of
food grains, there is a limit. I should know, as a Minister
of Chemicals and Fertilizers, the topping of land, cultivable
land, which for thousands of years, has had six inches of
alluvial portion is being destroyed~ What do you do by
giving this land doses of inorganic material, and various.
pesticides? You are destroying the bio-c~pability, indeed
the viability of land. Now people are talking of organic
foods, about earthworms being useful to enhance soil
productivity, we have been actually impoverishing the land.
Experts say, China is using three times more fertilizers.
So, we also have to use and produce three times more
fertilizers here, they say. But the land on which you are
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'Un/ortunatefYI we af( ted to thinK-in compartments;
we aft thinK-in tenns of supeificiaC so{utions.
'We tfon't ta~ a Iio{istic view.'
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concentrating in the Gangetic belt and in Punjab and other
places, that land is fast getting salina ted, on account of
excessive use of inorganic materials. Now, to improve
such land, experts demand that we bring Gypsum, bring
some thing else to restore the quality of land, which has
been destroyed. I tell you, aU this is suiddal, against
ecological balance, against environment, against natural
harmony.
But, feeding more mouths, which are on the increase
day by day, is a critical problem. There are mouths but no
productive hands. If they cared, they would add to national
wealth. No, they are unemployed and enveloped in social
unrest. There .is migration from rural areas to urban
pockets, creating slums and generating a host of other
problems, associated with unbridled and unplanned
urbanisation.
The population of Delhi is growing at the rate of five
lakh people every year. It will soon become a crore. This
has already happened in Bombay and, Calcutta. Other
larger cities will soon follow. Add to this, the social and
hygienic {?roblems. AUthe diseases that We get here, in
these ove~crowded cities, are- carried by the young men
and women to the rural areas, to their families whom they
have left behind. But unfortunately, we all tend to think in
compartments; we aUthink in terms of superficial solutions.
We don't take a holistic view.
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What is planning after all? Planning is tatal mabilisatian
af human and material resaurces far the well-being Q.fthe
entire saciety. That, we dan't keep in mind. I knaw
whenever I say such a thing, peaple say, "Sir, have yau nat
been in pawer all these years, why did yau nat take a
halistic view af papulatian? I candidly say, "Yes, if the
credit far whatever gaad that has been dane, is to.be taken
by us, we must also. take criticism far what went wrang.
We have been the party in pawer far mast af the last 47
years since Independence. So., haw can we say that things
that have nat been dane ar where we have fatted, shauld
nat be laid at daar? Why shauld we nat take the
respansibility?
I believe, the anly seriaus effart that was made in the
fi~ld af family planning was by that yaung leader, Sanjay
Gandhi. Whenever histary af that periad will be written,
whatever ath~rs may have to. say abauthim, I knaw that
he taak this pragramme seriausly. And he was succeeding.
But haw shart-sighted palitical parties in this cauntry are!
They decided to. utilise his pragramme far narraw palitical
purpase, far palitical propaganda. So. the rumaur mill, that
naw, even the schaal children are being injected. They
were, in fact, being immunised, against palia and ather
preventable diseases. But they said, "No., no., these are
family planning injectians, which will make aur young
anes impatent far all their life." So. peaple started
withdrawing their children from schaals wherever the
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'fJ1teentire propaganda of fared sterilisation, was uttetiy
fa£se, misc.liievous ad malicious. 'Ilie resuft '[vas a
6~k{ash on the family pfanning programme
with regretta6fe consequences. '
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programme of immunisation was being carried out. They
wer~ mislead to believe that, compulsory sterilisation is
being done by Sanjay. He is catching people and forcing
them into hospitals and doctors are cutting them up. What
a shame! We did not put an end to these ugly rumors arid
aUow~d' a well meant initiative to faiL
Iremewber, be~ieve, me, on this one issue, which was
a,rpajor issue, the Congress w~s ,thrown out, apart from
other tl:til}gs. F.'flrticul?\\rly in the northern belt, where this
rumollr sprea;d li~e wild,fire. SQ, when we were found to
sit in Opposition, the then Health Minister, Shri Raj Narain,
dechl.ared in Parliament, that his party would give Rs
10,'000 (this is all on Parliament record), to anyone who
comes forward, to say that he was forcibly sterilised.
Everyone thought that, the whole Treasury may not be
..
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suffiCient to meet claims for compensation. It is easier for
a man'to come arid say that vasectomy has been performed
. on him against' his will. He only had to say that the was
forced into it, and ten thousand rupees would be given to
him. Simple. No other proof was required.
But do you know, two months after that declaration, I
. raised a question in Parliam~nt, and asked Mr Raj Narain,
"Please tell me how many persons had come forward and
"bow much amount had been actually disbursed as
..compensation?". H~ would not give the figure. He said
"People were coming forward, M,rSathe. We will tell you.
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During your tenure, you had done a lot of unfair deeds".
I said alright but give me facts. Six months passed and I
again raised the question, "What happened, how many
crores have you paid?" He said, "Ask the Finance
Minister". Do you know, that till the end of the session,
they never gave a single figure? Privately however, we
found out that not even a few hundred had come forward.
What does that mean? What does that show? That the
entire propaganda of forced sterilisation, w~s utterly false,
mischievous and malicious. The result was a backlash on
the family planning programme with regrettable
consequences.
But after some time, there was some take-off. I
remember, in M~harashtra and other places in the rural
areas, there used to be a virtual run for services wherever
campaigns were organised. Because people discovered
that the most effective way to put an end to repeated and
unwanted pregnancies was, either the man or the woman
getting sterilised. It Was also safe. And it succeeded. After
three children, most people were willingto do it, partiC\\llarly
the females. Because at the time of each birth - three
children, four children - the woman has to undergo great
suffering. She is therefore willing. Even men were coming
forWard for vasectomy. However, the sad.consequence of
the backlash was that, after we returned to power there
was general reluctance to push family planning. We have
to use other expressions such as family welfare, etc.
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- 'tJ1U tliree "Es' 'Employment, 'Eazuation ana 'Economic (jrowtli -
wi£[ afuM liefp us so(ve tlie population pro6km. '
~~
Why this? Because we thought that recall of the past
might affect our votes ultimately. The most important thing
for us politicians is votes. And talking of votes, growth in
population is sometimes believ~d to be advantageous. I
heard some of the leaders here. "Mr Sathe, what are you
talking about, they all are living in jhuggi, jhopri and come
from outside. They are our vote banks".
So, there we are. If you take the illiterate poor as a vote
bank, and rely on them for political power, then a vested
interest is developed in having more population and not
less population. And, that too, in more population of the
illiterate and the poor. This is what you see right from
Bihar upto Rajasthan. Nobody seems to take it seriously.
Only Kerala did, and it has been shown that wherever the
population issue has been taken seriously, good results
have followed.
My humble submission is think globally. If the rich
countries were to decide that even a small portion of the
three trillion dollars that they are spending on armaments,
space warfare etc., are diverted for family welfare, it would
bring about change. At the end of a bipolar world, even if
10 per cent, some people say even one per cent, were to
be transferred towards family welfare in the poorer
countries, we would achieve a miracle. But that is not
happening. I have no right to preach sermons to the
"developed countries, because I am not practising it myself
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at home, If my country were practising what we preach to
others, we would have some voice. It is easy to give a long
lecture on population planning, but what are we doing at
home?
I think, it is time to introspect. I give you three 'Es' -
Employment, Education and Economic Growth - balanced
economic growth. The three 'Es' will alone help us solve
the population problem. Unless you link economic
development of the people in their own rural habitat, we
will not progress, for wbat Gandhiji said in his life time is
more relevant today. Oecentralised economy.
We are now talking about political decentralisation. I
must congratulate the Government for this change of
approach. It all started in Rajiv's time, Panchayati Raj and
empowerment of people, particularly the women. Kerala
has show that when you educate a woman, it improves the
quality of life of the entire family. We must concentrate on
that. Also, providing gainful employment to women, who
are actually the mainstay of our economy in the rural
areas. And think of giving employment to younger people,
so that they don't have to migrate from the rural areas to
urban ghettos. That, however, is a big subject.
I have been saying that there is no dearth of resources
in this country. I have found that when you have no logical
answers, when you cannot reason out, then you try to scoff
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'Our entire t~ aepart11rentand ta~ madiinery goes after 20 [ak.{i
peopfe to correcta paftry sum of ~ 10,000 crore
as personaf income t~ .
~
and laugh, and say, "Mr Sathe, please give a practical
suggestion". I tell you, in this country, only 0.4 per cent
people - I challenge the economists in the country to
disprove this - 0.4 per cent people pay income tax,
personal income tax, as against an average of 50 per cent
in all developed countries. In the Scandinavian countries,
80 per cent people pay income tax. Even in Argentina, 80
per cent people pay income tax. And in our country, in the
name of populism, a bare 40 lakhs people are assessees,
actually paying income tax. Out of them 25 lakhs are
government servants or belonging to the salaried class,
from whom tax is deducted, at the source. So, your entire
tax departme~t and tax. machinery goes after 20 lakh
people to collect a paltry sum of Rs 10,000 crore as
personal income tax.
So, I say, Sir, at least let 20 per cent of our population,
(after all, don't we claim that 300 million people are the
middle class, and tell it to the world that this is a great
market, attractive for investment, which can consume
Coca-Cola and Kentucky chicken and Levi jeans, etc.) pay
minimum,S per cent, maximum 25 per cent income tax.
That is the proposal that I have made. I have shown, by
fact and, figures of Government's own departments, that
even if seven crore families who, today, pay electricity bills
in this country, were to be assessed on the basis of
expenditure or consumption-based -estimated income, vast'
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3.1 Page 21 |
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resources will be mobilised. Then you will say, Mr Sathe is
talking of an expenditure-based-tax. I am only using
standard items of expenditure, like Electricity Bill,
Telephone Bill, possession of four wheelers, two wheelers,
as a basis, or having a shop in a particular place, where the
market rent can always by determined or ascertained. I am
basing my estimate of an individual's income. I am calling
it Estimated Income.
What is land revenue, which we have been having for
hundreds of years? It is nothing but estimated income tax.
You say, you have so much land, you get so much rain, so
you must have got so much production on which you give
this much land revenue. This is what you do, is it not?
Adopt estimated income as a basis. So it is not a new idea.
It is nothing revolutionary. Do you know how much you
will collect? Again I challenge, you or anyone, and I have
discussed it with people of Institute of Public Finance,
CBTD and everybody.
The minimum amount that you will collect even if 10
per cent of your population were to pay income tax, at
least personal income tax, will be one lakh crore as against
ten thousand crore. Our poverty will be removed, all the
deficit will be wiped off, we .need not bow down before
others, we need not go with a begging bowl to anybody,
we need not go to the World Bank, we need not go to IMF.
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3.2 Page 22 |
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'qJU minimum amount tMt you wi£{ cof£ect even if 10 per cent
of our population were to pay income t~ wi£{ 6e
one fa/(fi crore as against, ten thousarui crore. '
We will have finance for infrastructural development, we
will have money to help set up industries in every village.
Do you know what I am told? They say, Mr Sath~, what
are you saying? I~we insist that this 10 per cent people
these small business man, these shop-keepers also have to
pay income tax, this entire sub-class will be against us. We
know that shop-keepers, like the panwalas do not pay a
single penny as income tax even after earning Rs 500
every day. If you ask him to pay ten per cent or 5 per cent
income tax, of the assessed income or the estimated
income, you say, you will lose your votes. Then you get
currency notes from 20 lakhs people and beg from IMF and
others.
Every 26 paise in a rupee goes in payment as interest.
Then they'taunt me, that Sathe talks about this only when
he is no longer a Minister, it is an after thought. I have not
only said this, but I have. written in my first book, Social
Revolution: A Case for Economic Democracy. I have
mentioned all these points that I am repeating here today.
. I had specifically spelt out how we are making a mess of
the public sector by making them inefficient in my 1987
book "Restructuring of Public Sector in India". So most
of these things, I had said earlier. What is wrong in new
thinking? Nobody can claim that, well, he had all the
wisdom, at all times. So, I may be wrong. I may be making
mistakes, but please discuss, please argue, please reason
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3.3 Page 23 |
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out and if there is something that is found to be acceptable,
please accept it. Balanced growth of the people, 70% of
whom still live in rural areas. Unless you bring that about,
along with health measures, and unless, all this combines
with education and employment, unless such a holistic
programme of family welfare succeeds, we will remain
poor. Planning of the family includes economic
development. We have, today, lost the race, Development
has lost the race, lost to Population.
I was very impressed to read that in one day, we add
one Lakshadweep, in one week, we add one Mizoram, in
one month, we add Pondicherry and Goa together and in
one year we add one Haryana. Once upon a time it was
Australia. We have been saying again and again, because
their population has remained more or less constant at 1. 7
crore. But we keep on adding. That too mostly in the
populous belts where pressures become more aggravated.
If this is what is going to happen, then you know,
population explosion is taking place right here, it is not a
mere figurative expression. It is a question of the survival
of the fittest. After the drastic change in the whole global
balance, out of the six billion population that we will be by
2000 in words, three and a half billion would be from the
developing world or more, even 4 billion. Why? one billion
India, more than one billion China; another one billion
South Asia; the rest, Central Asia and Africa; and hem a
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3.4 Page 24 |
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:S01t1£aay, I fear, if tIU tfevefoped worM finds tnat its [ifestyl;' is
being threatened by pro[iferation of human beings from tlie
tfevefoping wor[tf, SO1t1£sort of 'warfare, including
. nudear may start sudtfenfy.
~~
billion South America. And the developed world with all
their privileges will be just about one to two billion. They
may like to send some food when famines devastate
Somalia or some other countries, when people die in
million, so as "conscience tranquilisers", as I call it, the
developed world may offer some charity. Some packets of
food are sent to some people and some medicines. But the
developing world will still not take planning population
growth seriously.
My fear is that if some holocaust or some form of war,
on some excuse were to start, who will suffer the most? You
know why nuclear war has not taken place or why poison
gas war did not break out? It is because no one was sure
which way the wind will blow. All the same, Chernobyl has
shown that we do not know which way the radiation will
go. That is why war is avoided; not because they are
charitable, not because they think it will be harmful to the
world at large. Some day, I fear, you can note this down
- who knows it might come true or it may not, and I wish
it should not, because this sort of proposition nobody
likes, but the fear is that tomorrow, if the developed
world finds that its life-style is being threatened by this
proliferation of human beings, multiplying like rats in the
developing countries, some sort of warfare including
probably nuclear, might suddenly start. The next war
might be waged mainly for taking care of the exploding,
almost unmanageable population.
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I am just expressing my fear. I don't know why we are
not doing anything really substantial to control our
population. I don't observe any seriousness anywhere,
because, as I said, seriousness can come only when one
thinks holistically of balanced growth. What one sees is
routine propaganda-- triangles, balloons in the form of
condoms. I feel all that is superficial. If you really want to
have a slogan, let it go something like this: Do you want a
car or a baby? Perhaps in our country, it should be a
television set, that too, a colour television set or a baby
Probably, people will prefer a television set. I say, a Baby
or a TV? Give TV as an incentive, which will help promote
Family Planning. But more fundamentally, bring about a
condition of balanced economic growth, since development
goes hand in hand with population control.
.
.
.
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3.6 Page 26 |
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Copyright 1994POPULATION FOUNDATION OF INDIA
(Formerly Family Plarming Foundation)
first Publishedjn 19941:Jy:
K11alakrislman
Secretaryan<:fTreasurer,
PopuJaJ~OIlFoundatiQn of India,
"6-28,Qutab InstitutionalArea~ New Delhi - 110016
Composedand Primed by:
SILVER B¥TES
G~50, Green Park
New Delhi -110 016
Editing and Production:
Sandhya Dhingra
Transcribed by:
Lakshmi fl Menon
""