The burden of a 'Second India' -
the nightmare projection of earlier
demographers - is nOw a reality
of life. From a population of 344
million at the time of Independence,
India had grown to 684 million
by 1st March 1981 and is now
moving inexorably towards a billion
by the tllrn of the century.
Can India's developing economy,
struggling to right the wrongs of
centuries of colonial rule that has
left vast segments of her people
impoverished and exploited, cope
with this tidal inundation of more
numbers along side? The Eighties
present a particularly critical period.
On the one hand. there is now the
full brunt of the physical pressures
created on limited resources by the
human explosion of the past two
decades, as the children of
yesterdaY become the job seekers of
today and the parents of tomorrow.
On the other, there is the grave
moral responsibility of bringing
about a more rational, responsible
reproductive behaviour for this huge
young generation, if the future is
not to be hopelessly mortgaged to
despair and deprivation Therefore,
beyond dispute the most important
challenge of this decade lies in the
demographic sphere. But how
many persons are concerned and
committed on this score? Can
we afford not to be? That is the
question more people need to ask
themselves today.
National Policy
India was among the first few
countries in the world to recegnise
the dangers inherent in rampant
pElpulation growth. Following
Independence, as the country's
leaders embarked 9n the challenging
task of raising the standards of
living of every citizen of free India
through planned development
within the framework Elfdemgcracy,
it was apparent to them tlolatthis
would not be accomplished unless
there was a concomitant effort to
contain the size of the population.
Family Planning as a national pOlicy
was, therefore, adopted in 1952.
This was a historic first in the annals
of governmental population policY,
but unfortunately the earlier
initiative was not matched by an
effective commitment to work.
Population and
Poverty
Beginning with the First Plan
the official programme has, to
date, invested nearly Rs 1,300 crores
on family planning. But so far,
only about 1 in 5 couples in the
country has been persuaded to adopt
a modern method of contraception
to limit the size of the family.
In the 34 years of free existence,
the country's population has
doubled. India is now in the
staggering position of having a
population that is more than the
combined populations of USA,
USSR and Indonesia, the world's
third, fourth and fifth most populous
countries respectively. In the last
decade alone it has added more to
its numbers than the total population
of Brazil, the world's sixth most
popu lous nation, with a land area
two and a half times that of India.
The 1981 Census results
highlighted the population to be not
only 12 million more than earlier
expected at this point of time, but
still more alarmingly the fact that
it was growing at a much faster
pace than had been projected by the
experts so far. The decadal growth
rate of 1971 -81 stood at 24.75
per cent. It tu rned out to be no
different than the decadal growth
rate of the sixties, earlier thought to
be an exceptional period of
phenomenal population increase.
But because of the larger population
base now existing, the seventies
added 136 million, instead elf
the 109 million brought in during the
sixties. If allQwed to continue
unchecked, this same growth
rate will add 171 million over
the present decade of
the eighties - a staggering 17
million a year.
Population density has already
spiralled to 221 per square
kilometer as against a world "average
of 30 and will hit over 300 as India
looms towards a billion. With 2.5
per cent of the world's land area
India has already 15 per cent of the
world's population. In the coming
century it is likely to outstrip the
other demographic giant China to
become the world's most populous
country. In the process, finite
resources are being stretched
to breaking point as they cope
with infinite demands. Essential
human needs, basic human rights
cannot but suffer in the face of such
an assault of ever-increasing
needs.
As of the present, India's
popu lation profile is dismaI
enough. Roughly half the 684
million citizens live submerged
below the poverty line -
denied even tha Rs 75 per
capita per month considered
adequate to provide two square
meals a day. Nearly two thirds of
the population remains illiterate -
thus denied access to skill
formation that wou Id in turn give it
access to the opportunities arising
from developmental activities.
42 per cent of the population
consists gf children below the age
of 14 and another 6 per cent of
those above the age of 60, together
making up an intolerably high
dependency ratio of 87 per cent,
which militates against the capacity
of the economically active to
generate enough savings for
betterment. The negation of the
sum total of devel~pment efforts is
intrinsic to this situation. To allow
an unbridled population increaseto
continue is, therefore, nothing
short of a death knell to peace,
progress and prosperity. The
9bvious conclusion, that follows,
is the need to ensure family planning
efforts accelerate and become more
aCGeptableand effective within a
reasonable time frame.